TBL
7–3
TOR
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 2-2
7–3
FinalW
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 2-2
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
3102929728
TOR
01004311325
goals · shots on goal
Game 4 — the series is tied 2–2
TBL 2-2 · TOR 2-2 · Game 4 — the series is tied 2–2
Lightning beat the Maple Leafs
The Lightning earned it: 3.9 expected goals to 1.8, and a 7–3 win to show for it. Jack Campbell allowed 2.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 3.9 expected goals to 1.8, on 28 and 25 shots on goal.
TBL 3.9 xG · 28 shots
TOR 1.8 xG · 25 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.3 · 1.0
2nd · the swing
1.9 · 0.2
3rd
0.7 · 0.6
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Steven Stamkos · 1st 01:00 · 1–0 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
2
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · 1st 05:20 · 2–0 · snap shot, a good chance (18%)
3
Patrick Maroon · 1st 07:58 · 3–0 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (33%)
4
Ross Colton · 2nd 03:17 · 4–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
5
Corey Perry · 2nd 05:25 · 5–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
6
William Nylander · 3rd 02:27 · 5–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (12%)
7
William Nylander · 3rd 12:01 · 5–2 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
8
Ondrej Palat · 3rd 14:40 · 6–2 · wrist shot, into an empty net
9
Jake Muzzin · 3rd 15:41 · 6–3 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
10
Ross Colton · 3rd 17:44 · 7–3 · backhand shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 82.
TBL 82%TOR 18%
Goals and penalties
10 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Steven Stamkos · 1st 01:00 · 1–0
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
2
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · 1st 05:20 · 2–0
Snap shot, a good chance (18%)
3
Patrick Maroon · 1st 07:58 · 3–0
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (33%)
4
Ross Colton · 2nd 03:17 · GWG · 4–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
5
Corey Perry · 2nd 05:25 · PP · 5–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
6
William Nylander · 3rd 02:27 · PP · 5–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (12%)
7
William Nylander · 3rd 12:01 · 5–2
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
8
Ondrej Palat · 3rd 14:40 · EN · 6–2
Wrist shot, into an empty net
9
Jake Muzzin · 3rd 15:41 · 6–3
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
10
Ross Colton · 3rd 17:44 · EN · 7–3
Backhand shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
22/25 saves · 3 GA · 1.8 xGA
Allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
11/16 saves · 5 GA · 2.4 xGA
Allowed 2.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
