TBL
4–3
TOR
Final / OT · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 3-3
4–3
Final / OTW
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 3-3
1ST2ND3RDOTT
TBL
112191915435
TOR
063140409333
goals · shots on goal
Game 6 — the series is tied 3–3
TBL 3-3 · TOR 3-3 · Game 6 — the series is tied 3–3
Lightning beat the Maple Leafs
Chances were even (3.5 to 3.5 expected goals); the Lightning won it in overtime on Point's goal.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 3.5 expected goals to 3.5, on 35 and 33 shots on goal.
TBL 3.5 xG · 35 shots
TOR 3.5 xG · 33 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
0.8 · 0.6
2nd
1.0 · 1.7
3rd
0.8 · 0.3
OT
0.9 · 0.9
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Ondrej Palat · 1st 17:38 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
2
Anthony Cirelli · 2nd 10:46 · 2–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
3
Auston Matthews · 2nd 11:40 · 2–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
4
John Tavares · 2nd 19:26 · 2–2 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
5
John Tavares · 2nd 19:52 · 2–3 · snap shot, a good chance (12%)
6
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 09:20 · 3–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
7
Brayden Point · OT 18:04 · 4–3 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (34%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 51.
TBL 51%TOR 49%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Ondrej Palat · 1st 17:38 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
2
Anthony Cirelli · 2nd 10:46 · SH · 2–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
3
Auston Matthews · 2nd 11:40 · 2–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
4
John Tavares · 2nd 19:26 · 2–2
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
5
John Tavares · 2nd 19:52 · 2–3
Snap shot, a good chance (12%)
6
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 09:20 · PP · 3–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
7
Brayden Point · OT 18:04 · GWG · 4–3
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (34%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
30/33 saves · 3 GA · 3.5 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
31/35 saves · 4 GA · 3.5 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
