TBL
5–1
FLA
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 7-3
5–1
FinalW
Florida Panthers
FLA · 4-5
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
113213210536
FLA
18012015135
goals · shots on goal
Game 3 — the Lightning lead the series 3–0
TBL 7-3 · FLA 4-5 · Game 3 — the Lightning lead the series 3–0
Lightning beat the Panthers
Chances were even (2.9 to 3.0 expected goals); the Lightning won 5–1. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 2.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.9 expected goals to 3.0, on 36 and 35 shots on goal.
TBL 2.9 xG · 36 shots
FLA 3.0 xG · 35 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.0 · 0.8
2nd
1.0 · 1.2
3rd
0.9 · 1.0
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Corey Perry · 1st 13:21 · 1–0 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Sam Reinhart · 1st 16:07 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Erik Cernak · 2nd 02:54 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
4
Steven Stamkos · 2nd 10:23 · 3–1 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
5
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 16:06 · 4–1 · wrist shot, into an empty net
6
Steven Stamkos · 3rd 17:51 · 5–1 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 48.
TBL 48%FLA 52%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Panthers shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Corey Perry · 1st 13:21 · 1–0
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Sam Reinhart · 1st 16:07 · PP · 1–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Erik Cernak · 2nd 02:54 · GWG · 2–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
4
Steven Stamkos · 2nd 10:23 · 3–1
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
5
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 16:06 · EN · 4–1
Wrist shot, into an empty net
6
Steven Stamkos · 3rd 17:51 · EN · 5–1
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
34/35 saves · 1 GA · 3.0 xGA
Stopped 2.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
31/34 saves · 3 GA · 2.9 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
