TBL
4–1
NYR
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 10-5
4–1
FinalW
New York Rangers
NYR · 10-8
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
1817216431
NYR
010012113135
goals · shots on goal
Game 4 — the series is tied 2–2
TBL 10-5 · NYR 10-8 · Game 4 — the series is tied 2–2
Lightning beat the Rangers
The Lightning earned it: 3.3 expected goals to 2.6, and a 4–1 win to show for it. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 1.6 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 3.3 expected goals to 2.6, on 31 and 35 shots on goal.
TBL 3.3 xG · 31 shots
NYR 2.6 xG · 35 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.8 · 0.4
2nd
0.9 · 0.8
3rd
1.6 · 1.5
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Patrick Maroon · 1st 02:38 · 1–0 · backhand shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 13:07 · 2–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
3
Steven Stamkos · 3rd 04:56 · 3–0 · snap shot on a rebound, a great chance (32%)
4
Artemi Panarin · 3rd 16:27 · 3–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (57%)
5
Ondrej Palat · 3rd 19:51 · 4–1 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 61.
TBL 61%NYR 39%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Rangers shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Patrick Maroon · 1st 02:38 · 1–0
Backhand shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 13:07 · GWG · 2–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
3
Steven Stamkos · 3rd 04:56 · 3–0
Snap shot on a rebound, a great chance (32%)
4
Artemi Panarin · 3rd 16:27 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 3–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (57%)
5
Ondrej Palat · 3rd 19:51 · EN · 4–1
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
1
Zach Bogosian, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · backhand shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
1–0
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
34/35 saves · 1 GA · 2.6 xGA
Stopped 1.6 more goals than an average goalie would have.
27/30 saves · 3 GA · 3.3 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
