TBL
6–2
COL
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 13-7
6–2
FinalW
Colorado Avalanche
COL · 14-3
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
21241506633
COL
114113012239
goals · shots on goal
Game 3 — the Lightning trail the series 1–2
TBL 13-7 · COL 14-3 · Game 3 — the Lightning trail the series 1–2
Lightning beat the Avalanche
The Lightning earned it: 4.3 expected goals to 3.6, and a 6–2 win to show for it. Darcy Kuemper allowed 2.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 4.3 expected goals to 3.6, on 33 and 39 shots on goal.
TBL 4.3 xG · 33 shots
COL 3.6 xG · 39 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.7 · 1.3
2nd
1.5 · 1.1
3rd
1.0 · 1.1
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Gabriel Landeskog · 1st 08:19 · 0–1 · backhand shot on a rebound, a great chance (37%)
2
Anthony Cirelli · 1st 13:03 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
3
Ondrej Palat · 1st 14:54 · 2–1 · snap shot, a great chance (25%)
4
Nick Paul · 2nd 01:26 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
5
Gabriel Landeskog · 2nd 04:43 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
6
Steven Stamkos · 2nd 07:52 · 4–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
7
Patrick Maroon · 2nd 11:15 · 5–2 · backhand shot, a good chance (21%)
8
Corey Perry · 2nd 14:58 · 6–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (20%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 60.
TBL 60%COL 40%
Goals and penalties
8 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Avalanche shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Gabriel Landeskog · 1st 08:19 · PP · 0–1
Backhand shot on a rebound, a great chance (37%)
2
Anthony Cirelli · 1st 13:03 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
3
Ondrej Palat · 1st 14:54 · 2–1
Snap shot, a great chance (25%)
4
Nick Paul · 2nd 01:26 · GWG · 3–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
5
Gabriel Landeskog · 2nd 04:43 · PP · 3–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
6
Steven Stamkos · 2nd 07:52 · 4–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
7
Patrick Maroon · 2nd 11:15 · 5–2
Backhand shot, a good chance (21%)
8
Corey Perry · 2nd 14:58 · PP · 6–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (20%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No goals or penalties.
No penalties
Goaltending
37/39 saves · 2 GA · 3.6 xGA
Stopped 1.6 more goals than an average goalie would have.
17/22 saves · 5 GA · 2.8 xGA
Allowed 2.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
