TBL
3–4
CAR
Final / SO · L
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 6-4-1
3–4
Final / SOL
Carolina Hurricanes
CAR · 7-2-1
1ST2ND3RDOTSOT
TBL
0831104030326
CAR
115121114051455
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Lightning trail the season series 0–1
TBL 6-4-1 · CAR 7-2-1 · First meeting this season — the Lightning trail the season series 0–1
Lightning fell to the Hurricanes
The Lightning were outchanced (4.9 to 2.7 expected goals) and lost it in a shootout. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 1.9 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Hurricanes created the better chances: 4.9 expected goals to 2.7, on 55 and 26 shots on goal.
TBL 2.7 xG · 26 shots
CAR 4.9 xG · 55 shots
0
1
2
3
4
5
1st
0.7 · 1.4
2nd
1.4 · 1.5
3rd · the swing
0.4 · 1.2
OT
0.3 · 0.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Seth Jarvis · 1st 08:29 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Ross Colton · 2nd 05:50 · 1–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
3
Nick Paul · 2nd 09:19 · 2–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
4
Martin Necas · 2nd 14:01 · 2–2 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
5
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 19:00 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
6
Brady Skjei · 3rd 13:34 · 3–3 · wrist shot off the rush, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 21.
TBL 21%CAR 79%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Hurricanes shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Seth Jarvis · 1st 08:29 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Ross Colton · 2nd 05:50 · PP · 1–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
3
Nick Paul · 2nd 09:19 · 2–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
4
Martin Necas · 2nd 14:01 · PP · 2–2
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
5
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 19:00 · PP · 3–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
6
Brady Skjei · 3rd 13:34 · SH · 3–3
Wrist shot off the rush, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
2
Mikhail Sergachev, Brandon Hagel · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
1–1
3rd period
No penalties
Shootout
Decided in a shootout — Hurricanes
Goaltending
52/55 saves · 3 GA · 4.9 xGA
Stopped 1.9 more goals than an average goalie would have.
23/26 saves · 3 GA · 2.7 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
