TBL
5–3
BUF
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 7-4-1
5–3
FinalW
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 7-5-0
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
1711439530
BUF
1611018324
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Lightning lead the season series 1–0
TBL 7-4-1 · BUF 7-5-0 · First meeting this season — the Lightning lead the season series 1–0
Lightning beat the Sabres
The Lightning earned it: 3.6 expected goals to 3.0, and a 5–3 win to show for it. An empty-net goal padded the final score; it was a one-goal game until then.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 3.6 expected goals to 3.0, on 30 and 24 shots on goal.
TBL 3.6 xG · 30 shots
BUF 3.0 xG · 24 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
0.8 · 0.6
2nd
1.5 · 1.3
3rd
1.2 · 1.1
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Nick Paul · 1st 07:07 · 1–0 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
2
Zemgus Girgensons · 1st 16:24 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
3
Brayden Point · 2nd 05:05 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
4
Casey Mittelstadt · 2nd 08:34 · 2–2 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
5
· 3rd 04:25 · 2–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
6
Brandon Hagel · 3rd 07:40 · 3–3 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (25%)
7
Nick Perbix · 3rd 15:05 · 4–3 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
8
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 19:02 · 5–3 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 59.
TBL 59%BUF 41%
Goals and penalties
8 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Sabres shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Nick Paul · 1st 07:07 · 1–0
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
2
Zemgus Girgensons · 1st 16:24 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
3
Brayden Point · 2nd 05:05 · PP · 2–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
4
Casey Mittelstadt · 2nd 08:34 · PP · 2–2
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
5
· 3rd 04:25 · 2–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
6
Brandon Hagel · 3rd 07:40 · 3–3
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (25%)
7
Nick Perbix · 3rd 15:05 · GWG · 4–3
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
8
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 19:02 · EN · 5–3
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
21/24 saves · 3 GA · 3.0 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
25/29 saves · 4 GA · 3.6 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
