Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 7-5-1
2–3
FinalL
Edmonton Oilers
EDM · 8-6-0
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
11606115237
EDM
17212010329
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Lightning trail the season series 0–1
TBL 7-5-1 · EDM 8-6-0 · First meeting this season — the Lightning trail the season series 0–1
Lightning fell to the Oilers
Chances were even (2.7 to 3.1 expected goals); the Lightning lost 2–3. The Oilers owned the 2nd period, 1.8 to 0.4 in expected goals.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.7 expected goals to 3.1, on 37 and 29 shots on goal.
TBL 2.7 xG · 37 shots
EDM 3.1 xG · 29 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.1 · 0.5
2nd · the swing
0.4 · 1.8
3rd
1.3 · 0.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Warren Foegele · 1st 07:45 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Brandon Hagel · 1st 09:53 · 1–1 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
3
Connor McDavid · 2nd 02:09 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
4
Leon Draisaitl · 2nd 04:07 · 1–3 · backhand shot, a good chance (16%)
5
Alex Killorn · 3rd 00:49 · 2–3 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 45.
TBL 45%EDM 55%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Warren Foegele · 1st 07:45 · SH · 0–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Brandon Hagel · 1st 09:53 · 1–1
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
3
Connor McDavid · 2nd 02:09 · PP · 1–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
4
Leon Draisaitl · 2nd 04:07 · PP · GWG · 1–3
Backhand shot, a good chance (16%)
5
Alex Killorn · 3rd 00:49 · 2–3
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
26/29 saves · 3 GA · 3.1 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
35/37 saves · 2 GA · 2.7 xGA
Stopped 0.7 more goals than an average goalie would have.