TBL
5–2
STL
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 12-7-1
5–2
FinalW
St. Louis Blues
STL · 10-10-0
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
31311014527
STL
1101908227
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Lightning lead the season series 1–0
TBL 12-7-1 · STL 10-10-0 · First meeting this season — the Lightning lead the season series 1–0
Lightning beat the Blues
The Lightning earned it: 3.3 expected goals to 2.3, and a 5–2 win to show for it.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 3.3 expected goals to 2.3, on 27 and 27 shots on goal.
TBL 3.3 xG · 27 shots
STL 2.3 xG · 27 shots
0
1
2
3
1st · the swing
1.4 · 0.7
2nd
0.9 · 1.1
3rd
1.0 · 0.5
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Brayden Point · 1st 03:29 · 1–0 · backhand shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Alex Killorn · 1st 03:57 · 2–0 · snap shot, a good chance (13%)
3
Brayden Point · 1st 08:04 · 3–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
4
Pavel Buchnevich · 1st 16:50 · 3–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
5
Jordan Kyrou · 2nd 06:24 · 3–2 · snap shot, a good chance (20%)
6
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 06:42 · 4–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
7
Nick Paul · 3rd 16:12 · 5–2 · wrist shot off the rush, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 67.
TBL 67%STL 33%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Blues shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Brayden Point · 1st 03:29 · 1–0
Backhand shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Alex Killorn · 1st 03:57 · 2–0
Snap shot, a good chance (13%)
3
Brayden Point · 1st 08:04 · PP · GWG · 3–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
4
Pavel Buchnevich · 1st 16:50 · PP · 3–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
5
Jordan Kyrou · 2nd 06:24 · 3–2
Snap shot, a good chance (20%)
6
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 06:42 · 4–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
7
Nick Paul · 3rd 16:12 · EN · 5–2
Wrist shot off the rush, into an empty net
1st period
1
Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov · backhand shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
1–0
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
25/27 saves · 2 GA · 2.3 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
22/26 saves · 4 GA · 3.3 xGA
Allowed 0.7 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
