TBL
4–2
MIN
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 30-15-1
4–2
FinalW
Minnesota Wild
MIN · 25-17-4
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
011210218439
MIN
08212015235
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
TBL 30-15-1 · MIN 25-17-4 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Lightning beat the Wild
The Lightning were outchanced (4.0 to 3.4 expected goals) but won 4–2 anyway. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 2.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Wild created the better chances: 4.0 expected goals to 3.4, on 35 and 39 shots on goal.
TBL 3.4 xG · 39 shots
MIN 4.0 xG · 35 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
0.7 · 0.4
2nd
1.4 · 1.8
3rd
1.4 · 1.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Joel Eriksson Ek · 2nd 03:43 · 0–1 · backhand shot, a great chance (29%)
2
Corey Perry · 2nd 09:44 · 1–1 · slap shot, a good chance (16%)
3
Kirill Kaprizov · 2nd 11:42 · 1–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (21%)
4
Corey Perry · 2nd 18:05 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
5
Steven Stamkos · 3rd 14:22 · 3–2 · deflected shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
6
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 19:43 · 4–2 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 41.
TBL 41%MIN 59%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Wild shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Joel Eriksson Ek · 2nd 03:43 · SH · 0–1
Backhand shot, a great chance (29%)
2
Corey Perry · 2nd 09:44 · 1–1
Slap shot, a good chance (16%)
3
Kirill Kaprizov · 2nd 11:42 · PP · 1–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (21%)
4
Corey Perry · 2nd 18:05 · PP · 2–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
5
Steven Stamkos · 3rd 14:22 · GWG · 3–2
Deflected shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
6
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 19:43 · EN · 4–2
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
No goals or penalties.
2nd period
3rd period
5
Mikhail Sergachev, Nikita Kucherov · deflected shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3–2
No penalties
Goaltending
33/35 saves · 2 GA · 4.0 xGA
Stopped 2.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
35/38 saves · 3 GA · 3.4 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
