TBL
5–6
BUF
Final / OT · L
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 36-17-4
5–6
Final / OTL
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 29-23-4
1ST2ND3RDOTT
TBL
1911031804541
BUF
123131711623
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Lightning lead the season series 2–1
TBL 36-17-4 · BUF 29-23-4 · Meeting 3 this season — the Lightning lead the season series 2–1
Lightning fell to the Sabres
The Lightning created the better chances (5.0 to 2.7 expected goals) — and lost it in overtime on Lyubushkin's goal. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 3.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 5.0 expected goals to 2.7, on 41 and 23 shots on goal.
TBL 5.0 xG · 41 shots
BUF 2.7 xG · 23 shots
0
1
2
3
4
5
1st
1.0 · 0.6
2nd
1.0 · 1.0
3rd · the swing
2.3 · 0.8
OT
0.7 · 0.3
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Steven Stamkos · 1st 02:19 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Zemgus Girgensons · 1st 11:41 · 1–1 · deflected shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
3
Tage Thompson · 2nd 09:36 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
4
Tage Thompson · 2nd 12:20 · 1–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (21%)
5
Victor Hedman · 2nd 12:36 · 2–3 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Jack Quinn · 2nd 13:25 · 2–4 · wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
7
Brayden Point · 3rd 05:48 · 3–4 · backhand shot, a good chance (14%)
8
Tage Thompson · 3rd 06:18 · 3–5 · wrist shot, a good chance (24%)
9
Anthony Cirelli · 3rd 08:33 · 4–5 · poke shot, a great chance (26%)
10
Ross Colton · 3rd 14:54 · 5–5 · slap shot, a good chance (10%)
11
Ilya Lyubushkin · OT 01:41 · 5–6 · wrist shot off the rush, a great chance (32%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 79.
TBL 79%BUF 21%
Goals and penalties
11 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Sabres shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Steven Stamkos · 1st 02:19 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Zemgus Girgensons · 1st 11:41 · 1–1
Deflected shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
3
Tage Thompson · 2nd 09:36 · PP · 1–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
4
Tage Thompson · 2nd 12:20 · 1–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (21%)
5
Victor Hedman · 2nd 12:36 · 2–3
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Jack Quinn · 2nd 13:25 · 2–4
Wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
7
Brayden Point · 3rd 05:48 · 3–4
Backhand shot, a good chance (14%)
8
Tage Thompson · 3rd 06:18 · 3–5
Wrist shot, a good chance (24%)
9
Anthony Cirelli · 3rd 08:33 · 4–5
Poke shot, a great chance (26%)
10
Ross Colton · 3rd 14:54 · PP · 5–5
Slap shot, a good chance (10%)
11
Ilya Lyubushkin · OT 01:41 · SH · GWG · 5–6
Wrist shot off the rush, a great chance (32%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
17/23 saves · 6 GA · 2.7 xGA
Allowed 3.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
36/41 saves · 5 GA · 5.0 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
