TBL
5–2
PHI
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 38-21-5
5–2
FinalW
Philadelphia Flyers
PHI · 24-29-11
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
115311113539
PHI
17116012235
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Lightning lead the season series 2–1
TBL 38-21-5 · PHI 24-29-11 · Meeting 3 this season — the Lightning lead the season series 2–1
Lightning beat the Flyers
The Lightning earned it: 2.8 expected goals to 2.3, and a 5–2 win to show for it. Carter Hart allowed 2.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 2.8 expected goals to 2.3, on 39 and 35 shots on goal.
TBL 2.8 xG · 39 shots
PHI 2.3 xG · 35 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.9 · 0.4
2nd
0.8 · 1.2
3rd
1.1 · 0.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Morgan Frost · 1st 05:52 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
2
Alex Killorn · 1st 07:38 · 1–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 00:34 · 2–1 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
4
Ross Colton · 2nd 08:46 · 3–1 · poke shot, a good chance (10%)
5
Alex Killorn · 2nd 10:49 · 4–1 · snap shot, a good chance (17%)
6
Brendan Lemieux · 2nd 12:40 · 4–2 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
7
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 17:38 · 5–2 · backhand shot, a great chance (28%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 59.
TBL 59%PHI 41%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Flyers shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Morgan Frost · 1st 05:52 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
2
Alex Killorn · 1st 07:38 · PP · 1–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (14%)
3
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 00:34 · PP · 2–1
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
4
Ross Colton · 2nd 08:46 · GWG · 3–1
Poke shot, a good chance (10%)
5
Alex Killorn · 2nd 10:49 · 4–1
Snap shot, a good chance (17%)
6
Brendan Lemieux · 2nd 12:40 · 4–2
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
7
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 17:38 · PP · 5–2
Backhand shot, a great chance (28%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
33/35 saves · 2 GA · 2.3 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
34/39 saves · 5 GA · 2.8 xGA
Allowed 2.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
