TBL
5–1
WSH
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 44-26-6
5–1
FinalW
Washington Capitals
WSH · 34-33-9
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
21309312534
WSH
08110013131
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Lightning lead the season series 2–1
TBL 44-26-6 · WSH 34-33-9 · Meeting 3 this season — the Lightning lead the season series 2–1
Lightning beat the Capitals
The Lightning earned it: 3.9 expected goals to 2.1, and a 5–1 win to show for it. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 1.1 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 3.9 expected goals to 2.1, on 34 and 31 shots on goal.
TBL 3.9 xG · 34 shots
WSH 2.1 xG · 31 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.1 · 0.4
2nd
1.1 · 1.0
3rd · the swing
1.6 · 0.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Alex Killorn · 1st 09:20 · 1–0 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Steven Stamkos · 1st 19:57 · 2–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
3
Craig Smith · 2nd 16:10 · 2–1 · deflected shot, a great chance (25%)
4
Patrick Maroon · 3rd 04:30 · 3–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (33%)
5
Patrick Maroon · 3rd 16:28 · 4–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (22%)
6
Erik Cernak · 3rd 18:06 · 5–1 · wrist shot off the rush, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 76.
TBL 76%WSH 24%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Capitals shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Alex Killorn · 1st 09:20 · PP · 1–0
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Steven Stamkos · 1st 19:57 · GWG · 2–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
3
Craig Smith · 2nd 16:10 · 2–1
Deflected shot, a great chance (25%)
4
Patrick Maroon · 3rd 04:30 · 3–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (33%)
5
Patrick Maroon · 3rd 16:28 · 4–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (22%)
6
Erik Cernak · 3rd 18:06 · EN · 5–1
Wrist shot off the rush, into an empty net
1st period
1
Mikhail Sergachev, Steven Stamkos · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
1–0
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
30/31 saves · 1 GA · 2.1 xGA
Stopped 1.1 more goals than an average goalie would have.
29/33 saves · 4 GA · 3.9 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
