TBL
3–4
TOR
Final · L
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 45-30-6
3–4
FinalL
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 49-21-11
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
114119115348
TOR
2121814424
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Lightning trail the season series 1–2
TBL 45-30-6 · TOR 49-21-11 · Meeting 3 this season — the Lightning trail the season series 1–2
Lightning fell to the Maple Leafs
The Lightning created the better chances (4.0 to 2.7 expected goals) — and lost 3–4. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 1.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 4.0 expected goals to 2.7, on 48 and 24 shots on goal.
TBL 4.0 xG · 48 shots
TOR 2.7 xG · 24 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.1 · 0.8
2nd
1.6 · 1.1
3rd
1.4 · 0.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
William Nylander · 1st 12:48 · 0–1 · snap shot, a good chance (16%)
2
Alex Killorn · 1st 13:59 · 1–1 · tip in shot on a rebound, a good chance (14%)
3
Luke Schenn · 1st 16:01 · 1–2 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
4
Nick Perbix · 2nd 05:21 · 2–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
5
Calle Jarnkrok · 2nd 16:56 · 2–3 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (18%)
6
Ryan O'Reilly · 3rd 12:33 · 2–4 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (44%)
7
Mikhail Sergachev · 3rd 13:49 · 3–4 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 69.
TBL 69%TOR 31%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
William Nylander · 1st 12:48 · PP · 0–1
Snap shot, a good chance (16%)
2
Alex Killorn · 1st 13:59 · 1–1
Tip in shot on a rebound, a good chance (14%)
3
Luke Schenn · 1st 16:01 · 1–2
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
4
Nick Perbix · 2nd 05:21 · 2–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
5
Calle Jarnkrok · 2nd 16:56 · PP · 2–3
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (18%)
6
Ryan O'Reilly · 3rd 12:33 · GWG · 2–4
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (44%)
7
Mikhail Sergachev · 3rd 13:49 · 3–4
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
4
Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · wrist shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2–2
3rd period
7
Unassisted · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
3–4
No penalties
Goaltending
20/24 saves · 4 GA · 2.7 xGA
Allowed 1.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
45/48 saves · 3 GA · 4.0 xGA
Stopped 1.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
