TBL
3–4
TOR
Final / OT · L
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 1-2
3–4
Final / OTL
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 2-1
1ST2ND3RDOTT
TBL
2131150308339
TOR
28081615427
goals · shots on goal
Game 3 — the Lightning trail the series 1–2
TBL 1-2 · TOR 2-1 · Game 3 — the Lightning trail the series 1–2
Lightning fell to the Maple Leafs
The Lightning created the better chances (4.0 to 2.5 expected goals) — and lost it in overtime on Rielly's goal. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 1.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 4.0 expected goals to 2.5, on 39 and 27 shots on goal.
TBL 4.0 xG · 39 shots
TOR 2.5 xG · 27 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.0 · 0.5
2nd
1.5 · 0.8
3rd
0.7 · 0.8
OT
0.9 · 0.3
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Noel Acciari · 1st 03:24 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
2
Anthony Cirelli · 1st 04:50 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
3
Auston Matthews · 1st 11:10 · 1–2 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
4
Brandon Hagel · 1st 19:28 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
5
Darren Raddysh · 2nd 13:34 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Ryan O'Reilly · 3rd 19:00 · 3–3 · poke shot on a rebound, a good chance (25%)
7
Morgan Rielly · OT 19:15 · 3–4 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 73.
TBL 73%TOR 27%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Noel Acciari · 1st 03:24 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
2
Anthony Cirelli · 1st 04:50 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
3
Auston Matthews · 1st 11:10 · 1–2
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
4
Brandon Hagel · 1st 19:28 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
5
Darren Raddysh · 2nd 13:34 · 3–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Ryan O'Reilly · 3rd 19:00 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 3–3
Poke shot on a rebound, a good chance (25%)
7
Morgan Rielly · OT 19:15 · GWG · 3–4
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
23/27 saves · 4 GA · 2.5 xGA
Allowed 1.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
36/39 saves · 3 GA · 4.0 xGA
Stopped 1.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
