TBL
4–5
TOR
Final / OT · L
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 1-3
4–5
Final / OTL
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 3-1
1ST2ND3RDOTT
TBL
2122701101431
TOR
0511431216537
goals · shots on goal
Game 4 — the Lightning trail the series 1–3
TBL 1-3 · TOR 3-1 · Game 4 — the Lightning trail the series 1–3
Lightning fell to the Maple Leafs
The Lightning let a 4–1 lead get away: the Maple Leafs came back with four unanswered goals — Rielly's equalizer — and won it in overtime on Kerfoot's goal. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 2.4 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 3.2 expected goals to 2.6, on 31 and 37 shots on goal.
TBL 3.2 xG · 31 shots
TOR 2.6 xG · 37 shots
0
1
2
3
1st · the swing
1.2 · 0.4
2nd
0.8 · 0.9
3rd
1.1 · 0.6
OT
0.1 · 0.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Alex Killorn · 1st 09:57 · 1–0 · tip in shot, a good chance (20%)
2
Mikhail Sergachev · 1st 18:27 · 2–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
3
Noel Acciari · 2nd 04:51 · 2–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (12%)
4
Steven Stamkos · 2nd 11:31 · 3–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (12%)
5
Alex Killorn · 2nd 18:49 · 4–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
6
Auston Matthews · 3rd 09:44 · 4–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
7
Auston Matthews · 3rd 12:29 · 4–3 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
8
Morgan Rielly · 3rd 16:04 · 4–4 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
9
Alexander Kerfoot · OT 04:14 · 4–5 · tip in shot, a good chance (11%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 60.
TBL 60%TOR 40%
Goals and penalties
9 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Alex Killorn · 1st 09:57 · PP · 1–0
Tip in shot, a good chance (20%)
2
Mikhail Sergachev · 1st 18:27 · 2–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
3
Noel Acciari · 2nd 04:51 · 2–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (12%)
4
Steven Stamkos · 2nd 11:31 · 3–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (12%)
5
Alex Killorn · 2nd 18:49 · 4–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
6
Auston Matthews · 3rd 09:44 · 4–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
7
Auston Matthews · 3rd 12:29 · PP · 4–3
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
8
Morgan Rielly · 3rd 16:04 · 4–4
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
9
Alexander Kerfoot · OT 04:14 · PP · GWG · 4–5
Tip in shot, a good chance (11%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
32/37 saves · 5 GA · 2.6 xGA
Allowed 2.4 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
27/31 saves · 4 GA · 3.2 xGA
Allowed 0.8 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
