TBL
1–2
TOR
Final / OT · L
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 2-4
1–2
Final / OTL
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 4-2
1ST2ND3RDOTT
TBL
01001011101132
TOR
071100411222
goals · shots on goal
Game 6 — the Lightning trail the series 2–4
TBL 2-4 · TOR 4-2 · Game 6 — the Lightning trail the series 2–4
Lightning fell to the Maple Leafs
The Lightning created the better chances (3.0 to 2.2 expected goals) — and lost it in overtime on Tavares's goal. Ilya Samsonov stopped 2.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 3.0 expected goals to 2.2, on 32 and 22 shots on goal.
TBL 3.0 xG · 32 shots
TOR 2.2 xG · 22 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.9 · 0.9
2nd
1.3 · 0.8
3rd
0.5 · 0.4
OT
0.2 · 0.1
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Auston Matthews · 2nd 13:47 · 0–1 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Steven Stamkos · 3rd 04:11 · 1–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (22%)
3
John Tavares · OT 04:36 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 62.
TBL 62%TOR 38%
Goals and penalties
3 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Auston Matthews · 2nd 13:47 · 0–1
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Steven Stamkos · 3rd 04:11 · 1–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (22%)
3
John Tavares · OT 04:36 · GWG · 1–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
1st period
No goals or penalties.
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
20/22 saves · 2 GA · 2.2 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
31/32 saves · 1 GA · 3.0 xGA
Stopped 2.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
