TBL
3–1
PIT
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 12-10-5
3–1
FinalW
Pittsburgh Penguins
PIT · 11-11-3
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
1112907327
PIT
04010111125
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
TBL 12-10-5 · PIT 11-11-3 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Lightning beat the Penguins
The Lightning earned it: 3.5 expected goals to 2.5, and a 3–1 win to show for it. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 1.5 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 3.5 expected goals to 2.5, on 27 and 25 shots on goal.
TBL 3.5 xG · 27 shots
PIT 2.5 xG · 25 shots
0
1
2
3
1st · the swing
1.1 · 0.2
2nd
1.3 · 0.9
3rd
1.1 · 1.4
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Anthony Cirelli · 1st 05:56 · 1–0 · backhand shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
2
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 08:31 · 2–0 · slap shot, a good chance (12%)
3
Tanner Jeannot · 2nd 17:04 · 3–0 · backhand shot on a rebound, a good chance (21%)
4
Jake Guentzel · 3rd 19:07 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 65.
TBL 65%PIT 35%
Goals and penalties
4 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Penguins shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Anthony Cirelli · 1st 05:56 · PP · 1–0
Backhand shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
2
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 08:31 · PP · GWG · 2–0
Slap shot, a good chance (12%)
3
Tanner Jeannot · 2nd 17:04 · 3–0
Backhand shot on a rebound, a good chance (21%)
4
Jake Guentzel · 3rd 19:07 · 3–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
1st period
1
Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · backhand shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
1–0
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
24/25 saves · 1 GA · 2.5 xGA
Stopped 1.5 more goals than an average goalie would have.
24/27 saves · 3 GA · 3.5 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
