TBL
2–3
BUF
Final / OT · L
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 32-24-6
2–3
Final / OTL
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 28-28-4
1ST2ND3RDOTT
TBL
18180700223
BUF
15071912323
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Lightning trail the season series 1–2
TBL 32-24-6 · BUF 28-28-4 · Meeting 3 this season — the Lightning trail the season series 1–2
Lightning fell to the Sabres
Chances were even (2.2 to 1.7 expected goals); the Lightning lost it in overtime on Dahlin's goal. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 1.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.2 expected goals to 1.7, on 23 and 23 shots on goal.
TBL 2.2 xG · 23 shots
BUF 1.7 xG · 23 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.9 · 0.4
2nd
0.6 · 0.2
3rd
0.7 · 0.6
OT
0.0 · 0.6
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Brayden Point · 1st 08:12 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
2
Alex Tuch · 1st 10:59 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
3
Mitchell Chaffee · 2nd 17:18 · 2–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (11%)
4
Tage Thompson · 3rd 11:33 · 2–2 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
5
Rasmus Dahlin · OT 01:42 · 2–3 · wrist shot, a great chance (29%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 58.
TBL 58%BUF 42%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Sabres shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Brayden Point · 1st 08:12 · PP · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
2
Alex Tuch · 1st 10:59 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
3
Mitchell Chaffee · 2nd 17:18 · 2–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (11%)
4
Tage Thompson · 3rd 11:33 · PP · 2–2
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
5
Rasmus Dahlin · OT 01:42 · PP · GWG · 2–3
Wrist shot, a great chance (29%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
20/23 saves · 3 GA · 1.7 xGA
Allowed 1.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
21/23 saves · 2 GA · 2.2 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
