TBL
2–4
BUF
Final · L
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 44-29-8
2–4
FinalL
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 39-37-6
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
01617110233
BUF
1921619434
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 4 this season — the Lightning trail the season series 1–3
TBL 44-29-8 · BUF 39-37-6 · Meeting 4 this season — the Lightning trail the season series 1–3
Lightning fell to the Sabres
Chances were even (3.8 to 3.9 expected goals); the Lightning lost 2–4. Eric Comrie stopped 1.8 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 3.8 expected goals to 3.9, on 33 and 34 shots on goal.
TBL 3.8 xG · 33 shots
BUF 3.9 xG · 34 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st · the swing
2.3 · 1.1
2nd
0.7 · 1.7
3rd
0.7 · 1.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Dylan Cozens · 1st 01:26 · 0–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (21%)
2
Steven Stamkos · 2nd 02:27 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
3
Dylan Cozens · 2nd 05:08 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Jordan Greenway · 2nd 16:13 · 1–3 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (30%)
5
Erik Cernak · 3rd 09:39 · 2–3 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
6
Zach Benson · 3rd 09:54 · 2–4 · tip in shot, a great chance (26%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 47.
TBL 47%BUF 53%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Sabres shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Dylan Cozens · 1st 01:26 · 0–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (21%)
2
Steven Stamkos · 2nd 02:27 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
3
Dylan Cozens · 2nd 05:08 · SH · 1–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Jordan Greenway · 2nd 16:13 · GWG · 1–3
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (30%)
5
Erik Cernak · 3rd 09:39 · 2–3
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
6
Zach Benson · 3rd 09:54 · 2–4
Tip in shot, a great chance (26%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
30/34 saves · 4 GA · 3.9 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
31/33 saves · 2 GA · 3.8 xGA
Stopped 1.8 more goals than an average goalie would have.
