TBL
6–4
TOR
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 45-29-8
6–4
FinalW
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 46-26-10
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
21031418632
TOR
11609313438
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 4 this season — the season series is tied 2–2
TBL 45-29-8 · TOR 46-26-10 · Meeting 4 this season — the season series is tied 2–2
Lightning beat the Maple Leafs
The Lightning earned it: 4.1 expected goals to 3.5, and a 6–4 win to show for it. Martin Jones allowed 1.9 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 4.1 expected goals to 3.5, on 32 and 38 shots on goal.
TBL 4.1 xG · 32 shots
TOR 3.5 xG · 38 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.1 · 1.5
2nd
1.5 · 0.9
3rd
1.4 · 1.1
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Nick Paul · 1st 03:58 · 1–0 · tip in shot, a great chance (38%)
2
Nikita Kucherov · 1st 06:14 · 2–0 · wrist shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
3
Ryan Reaves · 1st 13:18 · 2–1 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
4
Anthony Duclair · 2nd 06:37 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
5
Brayden Point · 2nd 17:05 · 4–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
6
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 17:57 · 5–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
7
Tanner Jeannot · 3rd 11:27 · 6–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
8
TJ Brodie · 3rd 14:02 · 6–2 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
9
Pontus Holmberg · 3rd 16:20 · 6–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
10
John Tavares · 3rd 19:25 · 6–4 · slap shot, a good chance (14%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 57.
TBL 57%TOR 43%
Goals and penalties
10 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Nick Paul · 1st 03:58 · 1–0
Tip in shot, a great chance (38%)
2
Nikita Kucherov · 1st 06:14 · 2–0
Wrist shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
3
Ryan Reaves · 1st 13:18 · 2–1
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
4
Anthony Duclair · 2nd 06:37 · 3–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
5
Brayden Point · 2nd 17:05 · PP · 4–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
6
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 17:57 · GWG · 5–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
7
Tanner Jeannot · 3rd 11:27 · 6–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
8
TJ Brodie · 3rd 14:02 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 6–2
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
9
Pontus Holmberg · 3rd 16:20 · 6–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
10
John Tavares · 3rd 19:25 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 6–4
Slap shot, a good chance (14%)
1st period
2
Brandon Hagel, Steven Stamkos · wrist shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2–0
2nd period
3rd period
7
Michael Eyssimont, Mitchell Chaffee · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
6–1
No penalties
Goaltending
34/38 saves · 4 GA · 3.5 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
26/32 saves · 6 GA · 4.1 xGA
Allowed 1.9 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
