TBL
6–3
FLA
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 1-3
6–3
FinalW
Florida Panthers
FLA · 3-1
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
31418210632
FLA
0531505325
goals · shots on goal
Game 4 — the Lightning trail the series 1–3
TBL 1-3 · FLA 3-1 · Game 4 — the Lightning trail the series 1–3
Lightning beat the Panthers
Chances were even (3.0 to 2.6 expected goals); the Lightning won 6–3. Sergei Bobrovsky allowed 3.0 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 3.0 expected goals to 2.6, on 32 and 25 shots on goal.
TBL 3.0 xG · 32 shots
FLA 2.6 xG · 25 shots
0
1
2
3
1st · the swing
1.4 · 0.3
2nd
0.7 · 1.7
3rd
0.9 · 0.6
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Steven Stamkos · 1st 08:54 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Brandon Hagel · 1st 12:09 · 2–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
3
Brayden Point · 1st 15:07 · 3–0 · wrap around shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
4
Carter Verhaeghe · 2nd 04:17 · 3–1 · snap shot, a good chance (16%)
5
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 09:40 · 4–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
6
Sam Reinhart · 2nd 11:09 · 4–2 · backhand shot, a good chance (21%)
7
Oliver Ekman-Larsson · 2nd 14:33 · 4–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
8
Steven Stamkos · 3rd 09:34 · 5–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
9
Nick Paul · 3rd 16:22 · 6–3 · backhand shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 58.
TBL 58%FLA 42%
Goals and penalties
9 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Panthers shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Steven Stamkos · 1st 08:54 · PP · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Brandon Hagel · 1st 12:09 · SH · 2–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
3
Brayden Point · 1st 15:07 · 3–0
Wrap around shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
4
Carter Verhaeghe · 2nd 04:17 · 3–1
Snap shot, a good chance (16%)
5
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 09:40 · GWG · 4–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
6
Sam Reinhart · 2nd 11:09 · PP · 4–2
Backhand shot, a good chance (21%)
7
Oliver Ekman-Larsson · 2nd 14:33 · 4–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
8
Steven Stamkos · 3rd 09:34 · 5–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
9
Nick Paul · 3rd 16:22 · PP · 6–3
Backhand shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
1st period
3
Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · wrap around shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
3–0
2nd period
5
Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
4–1
3rd period
9
Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · backhand shot on a rebound, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
6–3
No penalties
Goaltending
22/25 saves · 3 GA · 2.6 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
26/32 saves · 6 GA · 3.0 xGA
Allowed 3.0 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
