TBL
4–3
VGK
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 3-0-0
4–3
FinalW
Vegas Golden Knights
VGK · 3-2-0
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
290927425
VGK
21011005325
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Lightning lead the season series 1–0
TBL 3-0-0 · VGK 3-2-0 · First meeting this season — the Lightning lead the season series 1–0
Lightning beat the Golden Knights
The Lightning earned it: 3.9 expected goals to 2.5, and a 4–3 win to show for it. Kucherov's winner came with 0:55 left. The Lightning owned the 2nd period, 1.9 to 0.6 in expected goals.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 3.9 expected goals to 2.5, on 25 and 25 shots on goal.
TBL 3.9 xG · 25 shots
VGK 2.5 xG · 25 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.2 · 1.2
2nd · the swing
1.9 · 0.6
3rd
0.9 · 0.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Brayden McNabb · 1st 05:26 · 0–1 · snap shot, a good chance (15%)
2
J.J. Moser · 1st 10:21 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
3
Pavel Dorofeyev · 1st 15:20 · 1–2 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
4
Nikita Kucherov · 1st 19:47 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
5
Ivan Barbashev · 2nd 01:59 · 2–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
6
Brandon Hagel · 3rd 17:38 · 3–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
7
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 19:05 · 4–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 71.
TBL 71%VGK 29%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Golden Knights shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Brayden McNabb · 1st 05:26 · 0–1
Snap shot, a good chance (15%)
2
J.J. Moser · 1st 10:21 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
3
Pavel Dorofeyev · 1st 15:20 · PP · 1–2
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
4
Nikita Kucherov · 1st 19:47 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
5
Ivan Barbashev · 2nd 01:59 · 2–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
6
Brandon Hagel · 3rd 17:38 · 3–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
7
Nikita Kucherov · 3rd 19:05 · GWG · 4–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
22/25 saves · 3 GA · 2.5 xGA
Allowed 0.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
21/25 saves · 4 GA · 3.9 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
