TBL
4–1
WPG
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 8-6-1
4–1
FinalW
Winnipeg Jets
WPG · 15-2-0
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
11021316429
WPG
0716011124
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
TBL 8-6-1 · WPG 15-2-0 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Lightning beat the Jets
Chances were even (2.7 to 2.2 expected goals); the Lightning won 4–1. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 1.2 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.7 expected goals to 2.2, on 29 and 24 shots on goal.
TBL 2.7 xG · 29 shots
WPG 2.2 xG · 24 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.8 · 0.9
2nd · the swing
1.4 · 0.6
3rd
0.5 · 0.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Jake Guentzel · 1st 07:24 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
2
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 03:10 · 2–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
3
Anthony Cirelli · 2nd 04:07 · 3–0 · tip in shot, a good chance (16%)
4
Adam Lowry · 2nd 06:54 · 3–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
5
Jake Guentzel · 3rd 19:39 · 4–1 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 58.
TBL 58%WPG 42%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Jets shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Jake Guentzel · 1st 07:24 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
2
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 03:10 · GWG · 2–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
3
Anthony Cirelli · 2nd 04:07 · PP · 3–0
Tip in shot, a good chance (16%)
4
Adam Lowry · 2nd 06:54 · 3–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
5
Jake Guentzel · 3rd 19:39 · EN · 4–1
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
23/24 saves · 1 GA · 2.2 xGA
Stopped 1.2 more goals than an average goalie would have.
25/28 saves · 3 GA · 2.7 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
