TBL
4–3
OTT
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 28-20-4
4–3
FinalW
Ottawa Senators
OTT · 29-21-4
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
014210214438
OTT
1811119328
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
TBL 28-20-4 · OTT 29-21-4 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Lightning beat the Senators
The Lightning earned it: 4.0 expected goals to 2.7, and a 4–3 win to show for it. Linus Ullmark stopped 1.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 4.0 expected goals to 2.7, on 38 and 28 shots on goal.
TBL 4.0 xG · 38 shots
OTT 2.7 xG · 28 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.5 · 0.8
2nd
1.3 · 0.6
3rd
1.2 · 1.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Michael Amadio · 1st 14:09 · 0–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (44%)
2
Luke Glendening · 2nd 01:44 · 1–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
3
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 07:38 · 2–1 · slap shot, a good chance (11%)
4
Claude Giroux · 2nd 09:30 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
5
Brandon Hagel · 3rd 01:56 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Ryan McDonagh · 3rd 18:25 · 4–2 · wrist shot, into an empty net
7
Drake Batherson · 3rd 18:40 · 4–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 69.
TBL 69%OTT 31%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Senators shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Michael Amadio · 1st 14:09 · PP · 0–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (44%)
2
Luke Glendening · 2nd 01:44 · 1–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
3
Nikita Kucherov · 2nd 07:38 · PP · 2–1
Slap shot, a good chance (11%)
4
Claude Giroux · 2nd 09:30 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
5
Brandon Hagel · 3rd 01:56 · 3–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Ryan McDonagh · 3rd 18:25 · EN · GWG · 4–2
Wrist shot, into an empty net
7
Drake Batherson · 3rd 18:40 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 4–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
25/28 saves · 3 GA · 2.7 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
34/37 saves · 3 GA · 4.0 xGA
Stopped 1.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
