TBL
5–1
OTT
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 29-20-4
5–1
FinalW
Ottawa Senators
OTT · 29-22-4
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
11119311531
OTT
07111010128
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Lightning lead the season series 2–1
TBL 29-20-4 · OTT 29-22-4 · Meeting 3 this season — the Lightning lead the season series 2–1
Lightning beat the Senators
The Lightning earned it: 2.8 expected goals to 1.9, and a 5–1 win to show for it. Anton Forsberg allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 2.8 expected goals to 1.9, on 31 and 28 shots on goal.
TBL 2.8 xG · 31 shots
OTT 1.9 xG · 28 shots
0
1
2
3
1st · the swing
1.2 · 0.3
2nd
0.8 · 0.8
3rd
0.8 · 0.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Jake Guentzel · 1st 09:23 · 1–0 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (26%)
2
Michael Amadio · 2nd 05:27 · 1–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
3
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 10:14 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
4
Brayden Point · 3rd 15:44 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
5
Erik Cernak · 3rd 19:08 · 4–1 · slap shot, into an empty net
6
Mitchell Chaffee · 3rd 19:34 · 5–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (21%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 65.
TBL 65%OTT 35%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Senators shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Jake Guentzel · 1st 09:23 · PP · 1–0
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (26%)
2
Michael Amadio · 2nd 05:27 · 1–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
3
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 10:14 · GWG · 2–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (18%)
4
Brayden Point · 3rd 15:44 · 3–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
5
Erik Cernak · 3rd 19:08 · EN · 4–1
Slap shot, into an empty net
6
Mitchell Chaffee · 3rd 19:34 · 5–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (21%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
27/28 saves · 1 GA · 1.9 xGA
Stopped 0.9 more goals than an average goalie would have.
26/30 saves · 4 GA · 2.8 xGA
Allowed 1.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
