TBL
6–5
BUF
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 37-21-4
6–5
FinalW
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 24-31-6
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
2731316626
BUF
31228013533
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Lightning lead the season series 1–0
TBL 37-21-4 · BUF 24-31-6 · First meeting this season — the Lightning lead the season series 1–0
Lightning beat the Sabres
Down 3–5 in the 2nd period, the Lightning erased the deficit with three unanswered goals — Guentzel's equalizer — and won 6–5. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 3.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.7 expected goals to 2.5, on 26 and 33 shots on goal.
TBL 2.7 xG · 26 shots
BUF 2.5 xG · 33 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.4 · 0.8
2nd
1.2 · 0.7
3rd
1.1 · 1.0
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Nick Paul · 1st 05:01 · 1–0 · backhand shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
2
Rasmus Dahlin · 1st 05:17 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
3
Darren Raddysh · 1st 05:53 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
4
Alex Tuch · 1st 08:20 · 2–2 · snap shot, a good chance (11%)
5
Peyton Krebs · 1st 17:09 · 2–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
6
Jake Guentzel · 2nd 00:58 · 3–3 · snap shot, a good chance (18%)
7
Tage Thompson · 2nd 09:35 · 3–4 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
8
JJ Peterka · 2nd 12:40 · 3–5 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
9
Jake Guentzel · 2nd 17:43 · 4–5 · backhand shot, a good chance (15%)
10
Jake Guentzel · 2nd 18:46 · 5–5 · slap shot, a good chance (13%)
11
Oliver Bjorkstrand · 3rd 01:40 · 6–5 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (55%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 53.
TBL 53%BUF 47%
Goals and penalties
11 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Sabres shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Nick Paul · 1st 05:01 · 1–0
Backhand shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
2
Rasmus Dahlin · 1st 05:17 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
3
Darren Raddysh · 1st 05:53 · 2–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
4
Alex Tuch · 1st 08:20 · 2–2
Snap shot, a good chance (11%)
5
Peyton Krebs · 1st 17:09 · 2–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
6
Jake Guentzel · 2nd 00:58 · 3–3
Snap shot, a good chance (18%)
7
Tage Thompson · 2nd 09:35 · PP · 3–4
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
8
JJ Peterka · 2nd 12:40 · 3–5
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
9
Jake Guentzel · 2nd 17:43 · 4–5
Backhand shot, a good chance (15%)
10
Jake Guentzel · 2nd 18:46 · PP · 5–5
Slap shot, a good chance (13%)
11
Oliver Bjorkstrand · 3rd 01:40 · GWG · 6–5
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (55%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
28/33 saves · 5 GA · 2.5 xGA
Allowed 2.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
20/26 saves · 6 GA · 2.7 xGA
Allowed 3.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
