TBL
3–4
TOR
Final / OT · L
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 45-26-7
3–4
Final / OTL
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 48-26-4
1ST2ND3RDOTT
TBL
180122602328
TOR
210091913431
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 4 this season — the Lightning trail the season series 0–4
TBL 45-26-7 · TOR 48-26-4 · Meeting 4 this season — the Lightning trail the season series 0–4
Lightning fell to the Maple Leafs
Chances were even (3.8 to 4.2 expected goals); the Lightning lost it in overtime on Knies's goal. The Lightning owned the 2nd period, 1.4 to 0.2 in expected goals.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 3.8 expected goals to 4.2, on 28 and 31 shots on goal.
TBL 3.8 xG · 28 shots
TOR 4.2 xG · 31 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.0 · 1.5
2nd · the swing
1.4 · 0.2
3rd
0.7 · 1.8
OT
0.7 · 0.6
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Mitch Marner · 1st 01:13 · 0–1 · slap shot, a good chance (15%)
2
Matthew Knies · 1st 03:33 · 0–2 · snap shot on a rebound, a great chance (28%)
3
Nick Perbix · 1st 18:58 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
4
Oliver Bjorkstrand · 3rd 00:50 · 2–2 · slap shot, a good chance (16%)
5
Matthew Knies · 3rd 02:03 · 2–3 · snap shot on a rebound, a great chance (50%)
6
Victor Hedman · 3rd 11:05 · 3–3 · snap shot, a good chance (10%)
7
Matthew Knies · OT 02:56 · 3–4 · snap shot, a great chance (34%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 45.
TBL 45%TOR 55%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Maple Leafs shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Mitch Marner · 1st 01:13 · 0–1
Slap shot, a good chance (15%)
2
Matthew Knies · 1st 03:33 · 0–2
Snap shot on a rebound, a great chance (28%)
3
Nick Perbix · 1st 18:58 · 1–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
4
Oliver Bjorkstrand · 3rd 00:50 · PP · 2–2
Slap shot, a good chance (16%)
5
Matthew Knies · 3rd 02:03 · PP · 2–3
Snap shot on a rebound, a great chance (50%)
6
Victor Hedman · 3rd 11:05 · PP · 3–3
Snap shot, a good chance (10%)
7
Matthew Knies · OT 02:56 · GWG · 3–4
Snap shot, a great chance (34%)
1st period
2nd period
No goals or penalties.
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
27/31 saves · 4 GA · 4.2 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
25/28 saves · 3 GA · 3.8 xGA
Stopped 0.8 more goals than an average goalie would have.
