TBL
2–6
FLA
Final · L
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 0-1
2–6
FinalL
Florida Panthers
FLA · 1-0
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
1101606222
FLA
263714617
goals · shots on goal
Game 1 — the Lightning trail the series 0–1
TBL 0-1 · FLA 1-0 · Game 1 — the Lightning trail the series 0–1
Lightning fell to the Panthers
The Lightning were outchanced (2.7 to 2.0 expected goals) and lost 2–6. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 3.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Panthers created the better chances: 2.7 expected goals to 2.0, on 17 and 22 shots on goal.
TBL 2.0 xG · 22 shots
FLA 2.7 xG · 17 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.0 · 0.8
2nd · the swing
0.5 · 1.7
3rd
0.5 · 0.3
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Sam Bennett · 1st 03:44 · 0–1 · bat shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Jake Guentzel · 1st 12:21 · 1–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (20%)
3
Sam Reinhart · 1st 19:15 · 1–2 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
4
Nate Schmidt · 2nd 04:41 · 1–3 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (63%)
5
Matthew Tkachuk · 2nd 04:55 · 1–4 · wrist shot, a good chance (23%)
6
Matthew Tkachuk · 2nd 09:44 · 1–5 · snap shot, a good chance (20%)
7
Brayden Point · 2nd 13:04 · 2–5 · snap shot, a good chance (10%)
8
Nate Schmidt · 3rd 05:09 · 2–6 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 37.
TBL 37%FLA 63%
Goals and penalties
8 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Panthers shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Sam Bennett · 1st 03:44 · 0–1
Bat shot, a good chance (11%)
2
Jake Guentzel · 1st 12:21 · PP · 1–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (20%)
3
Sam Reinhart · 1st 19:15 · 1–2
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
4
Nate Schmidt · 2nd 04:41 · GWG · 1–3
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (63%)
5
Matthew Tkachuk · 2nd 04:55 · PP · 1–4
Wrist shot, a good chance (23%)
6
Matthew Tkachuk · 2nd 09:44 · PP · 1–5
Snap shot, a good chance (20%)
7
Brayden Point · 2nd 13:04 · 2–5
Snap shot, a good chance (10%)
8
Nate Schmidt · 3rd 05:09 · PP · 2–6
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
1st period
3
Dmitry Kulikov, Carter Verhaeghe · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
1–2
2nd period
3rd period
8
Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
2–6
No penalties
Goaltending
11/17 saves · 6 GA · 2.7 xGA
Allowed 3.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
20/22 saves · 2 GA · 2.0 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
