TBL
3–6
FLA
Final · L
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 1-4
3–6
FinalL
Florida Panthers
FLA · 4-1
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
2911307329
FLA
2162827631
goals · shots on goal
Game 5 — the Lightning trail the series 1–4
TBL 1-4 · FLA 4-1 · Game 5 — the Lightning trail the series 1–4
Lightning fell to the Panthers
Chances were even (2.8 to 2.9 expected goals); the Lightning lost 3–6. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 2.1 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.8 expected goals to 2.9, on 29 and 31 shots on goal.
TBL 2.8 xG · 29 shots
FLA 2.9 xG · 31 shots
0
1
2
3
1st · the swing
1.0 · 2.0
2nd
1.2 · 0.3
3rd
0.6 · 0.6
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Gage Goncalves · 1st 02:33 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
2
Carter Verhaeghe · 1st 05:21 · 1–1 · snap shot, a great chance (39%)
3
Anton Lundell · 1st 10:06 · 1–2 · deflected shot, a good chance (16%)
4
Nick Paul · 1st 12:16 · 2–2 · snap shot, a good chance (16%)
5
Aleksander Barkov · 2nd 00:52 · 2–3 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Jake Guentzel · 2nd 09:57 · 3–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
7
Sam Bennett · 2nd 15:13 · 3–4 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
8
Eetu Luostarinen · 3rd 13:02 · 3–5 · snap shot, a good chance (18%)
9
Sam Reinhart · 3rd 15:36 · 3–6 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 48.
TBL 48%FLA 52%
Goals and penalties
9 goals · 0 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Panthers shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Gage Goncalves · 1st 02:33 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
2
Carter Verhaeghe · 1st 05:21 · PP · 1–1
Snap shot, a great chance (39%)
3
Anton Lundell · 1st 10:06 · 1–2
Deflected shot, a good chance (16%)
4
Nick Paul · 1st 12:16 · 2–2
Snap shot, a good chance (16%)
5
Aleksander Barkov · 2nd 00:52 · 2–3
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
6
Jake Guentzel · 2nd 09:57 · PP · 3–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
7
Sam Bennett · 2nd 15:13 · GWG · 3–4
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
8
Eetu Luostarinen · 3rd 13:02 · 3–5
Snap shot, a good chance (18%)
9
Sam Reinhart · 3rd 15:36 · EN · 3–6
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
5
Gustav Forsling, Eetu Luostarinen · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2–3
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
25/30 saves · 5 GA · 2.9 xGA
Allowed 2.1 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
26/29 saves · 3 GA · 2.8 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
