Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 18-12-3
2–5
FinalL
Florida Panthers
FLA · 17-13-2
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
01315110228
FLA
2821313524
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
TBL 18-12-3 · FLA 17-13-2 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Lightning fell to the Panthers
Chances were even (2.1 to 1.9 expected goals); the Lightning lost 2–5. Jonas Johansson allowed 3.1 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.1 expected goals to 1.9, on 28 and 24 shots on goal.
TBL 2.1 xG · 28 shots
FLA 1.9 xG · 24 shots
0
1
2
1st
1.1 · 0.7
2nd
0.5 · 1.0
3rd
0.6 · 0.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Sam Reinhart · 1st 02:16 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Anton Lundell · 1st 03:48 · 0–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
3
Brad Marchand · 2nd 11:48 · 0–3 · tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Sam Reinhart · 2nd 18:08 · 0–4 · snap shot, a good chance (19%)
5
Max Crozier · 2nd 19:27 · 1–4 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
6
J.J. Moser · 3rd 02:11 · 2–4 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
7
Carter Verhaeghe · 3rd 06:37 · 2–5 · backhand shot, a good chance (23%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 55.
TBL 55%FLA 45%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 15 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Sam Reinhart · 1st 02:16 · SH · 0–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Anton Lundell · 1st 03:48 · 0–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
3
Brad Marchand · 2nd 11:48 · GWG · 0–3
Tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Sam Reinhart · 2nd 18:08 · PP · 0–4
Snap shot, a good chance (19%)
5
Max Crozier · 2nd 19:27 · 1–4
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
6
J.J. Moser · 3rd 02:11 · 2–4
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
7
Carter Verhaeghe · 3rd 06:37 · 2–5
Backhand shot, a good chance (23%)
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
01:41
Niko Mikkola· Holding
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
08:40
Darren Raddysh· Interference
Killed
Minor
2nd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
04:46
Charle-Edouard D'Astous· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
04:46
Brad Marchand· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
04:46
Max Crozier· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
08:05
Gustav Forsling· Interference
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
12:38
Gustav Forsling· Tripping
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
16:35
Curtis Douglas· Tripping
Reinhart scored on this power play
Minor
3rd period
PEN
2 min
Bench minor
02:11
Bench· Delaying game unsuccessful challenge
Killed
Bench minor
PEN
5 min
Major
03:52
Jake Guentzel· Fighting
Offsetting
Major
PEN
5 min
Major
03:52
Niko Mikkola· Fighting
Offsetting
Major
PEN
2 min
Minor
14:18
Evan Rodrigues· Delaying game puck over glass
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
15:28
Nikita Kucherov· Interference
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
15:28
Uvis Balinskis· Embellishment
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
19:05
Yanni Gourde· Slashing
Killed
Minor
Goaltending
19/24 saves · 5 GA · 1.9 xGA
Allowed 3.1 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
26/28 saves · 2 GA · 2.1 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
The Lightning went 0-for-5 on the power play and allowed 1 on 3 Panthers power plays.