TBL 4–2 COL Final · W
Lightning/Schedule/Recap Tue, Jan 6, 2026 · 2025-26 regular season
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 26-13-3
4–2
FinalW
Colorado Avalanche
COL · 31-4-7
1ST2ND3RDT TBL 11211026428 COL 07213013233 goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
TBL 26-13-3 · COL 31-4-7 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1

Lightning beat the Avalanche

The Lightning were outchanced (3.0 to 2.4 expected goals) but won 4–2 anyway. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 1.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.

Who had the better chances

The Avalanche created the better chances: 3.0 expected goals to 2.4, on 33 and 28 shots on goal.

TBL 2.4 xG · 28 shots COL 3.0 xG · 33 shots
0
1
2
3
1st 1.1 · 0.5
2nd 0.9 · 1.3
3rd · the swing 0.4 · 1.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 40.
TBL 40%COL 60%

Goals and penalties

6 goals · 8 penalties
← Lightning shoot this way Avalanche shoot this way →
On net Missed Bigger = better chance 1Goal, numbered to the list
1st period
PEN
03:58 Darren Raddysh· Holding
Killed
2 min
Minor
PEN
18:14 Brent Burns· Tripping
Guentzel scored on this power play
2 min
Minor
1
19:48 Jake Guentzel PP
Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Power play (Burns, tripping) · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
1–0
2nd period
2
03:22 Parker Kelly
Zakhar Bardakov, Ilya Solovyov · wrist shot, a good chance (19%)
1–1
PEN
07:28 Zakhar Bardakov· Slashing
Killed
2 min
Minor
3
09:31 Brock Nelson
Cale Makar · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
1–2
4
17:22 Zemgus Girgensons
Yanni Gourde, Pontus Holmberg · tip in shot, a good chance (11%)
2–2
3rd period
PEN
01:19 Charle-Edouard D'Astous· Holding
Killed
2 min
Minor
5
08:31 Brandon Hagel GWG
Max Crozier, Nikita Kucherov · snap shot, a good chance (15%)
3–2
6
18:35 Anthony Cirelli EN
Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh · snap shot, into an empty net
4–2
PEN
20:00 Nick Paul· Roughing
Offsetting
2 min
Minor
PEN
20:00 Martin Necas· Roughing
Offsetting
2 min
Minor
PEN
20:00 Charle-Edouard D'Astous· Roughing
Offsetting
2 min
Minor
PEN
20:00 Charle-Edouard D'Astous· Misconduct
10 min
Misconduct
Goaltending
+1.0
vs expected
31/33 saves · 2 GA · 3.0 xGA Stopped 1.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
−0.6
vs expected
24/27 saves · 3 GA · 2.4 xGA Allowed 0.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Team TBLCOL
Shots on goal
28
33
Expected goals
2.4
3.0
Hits
21
20
Blocks
19
21
Faceoffs
31%
69%
Power play
1/2
0/2
Penalty minutes
18
6
The Lightning went 1-for-2 on the power play and killed all 2 Avalanche power plays.