TBL
4–3
BUF
Final / OT · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 36-14-4
4–3
Final / OTW
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 32-18-6
1ST2ND3RDOTT
TBL
11301021111435
BUF
19042805326
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Lightning lead the season series 1–0
TBL 36-14-4 · BUF 32-18-6 · First meeting this season — the Lightning lead the season series 1–0
Lightning beat the Sabres
The Lightning earned it: 3.3 expected goals to 2.7, and they won it in overtime on Guentzel's goal.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 3.3 expected goals to 2.7, on 35 and 26 shots on goal.
TBL 3.3 xG · 35 shots
BUF 2.7 xG · 26 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.9 · 0.9
2nd
0.7 · 0.3
3rd
1.2 · 0.9
OT
0.5 · 0.6
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Nikita Kucherov · 1st 10:24 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Mattias Samuelsson · 1st 16:53 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
3
Mattias Samuelsson · 3rd 04:08 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
4
Oliver Bjorkstrand · 3rd 08:53 · 2–2 · snap shot on a rebound, a good chance (24%)
5
Josh Doan · 3rd 14:53 · 2–3 · deflected shot, a good chance (14%)
6
Darren Raddysh · 3rd 19:34 · 3–3 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
7
Jake Guentzel · OT 04:45 · 4–3 · snap shot, a great chance (30%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 59.
TBL 59%BUF 41%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 5 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Sabres shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Nikita Kucherov · 1st 10:24 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Mattias Samuelsson · 1st 16:53 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
3
Mattias Samuelsson · 3rd 04:08 · 1–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
4
Oliver Bjorkstrand · 3rd 08:53 · PP · 2–2
Snap shot on a rebound, a good chance (24%)
5
Josh Doan · 3rd 14:53 · PP · 2–3
Deflected shot, a good chance (14%)
6
Darren Raddysh · 3rd 19:34 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 3–3
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
7
Jake Guentzel · OT 04:45 · GWG · 4–3
Snap shot, a great chance (30%)
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
01:10
Noah Ostlund· Holding
Noah Ostlund· Holding
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:35
Gage Goncalves· Holding
Gage Goncalves· Holding
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
13:55
J.J. Moser· Tripping
J.J. Moser· Tripping
Killed
Minor
2
Unassisted · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
1–1
2nd period
No goals or penalties.
3rd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
07:33
Bowen Byram· Hooking
Bowen Byram· Hooking
Bjorkstrand scored on this power play
Minor
4
Darren Raddysh, Nikita Kucherov · Power play (Byram, hooking) · snap shot on a rebound, a good chance (24%)
2–2
PEN
2 min
Minor
12:55
Curtis Douglas· Hooking
Curtis Douglas· Hooking
Doan scored on this power play
Minor
5
Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Power play (Douglas, hooking) · deflected shot, a good chance (14%)
2–3
Overtime
Goaltending
23/26 saves · 3 GA · 2.7 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
31/35 saves · 4 GA · 3.3 xGA
Allowed 0.7 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
The Lightning went 1-for-2 on the power play and allowed 1 on 3 Sabres power plays.