TBL 2–6 BUF Final · L
Lightning/Schedule/Recap Sat, Feb 28, 2026 · 2025-26 regular season
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 38-16-4
2–6
FinalL
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 35-19-6
1ST2ND3RDT TBL 014112112238 BUF 41012015635 goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
TBL 38-16-4 · BUF 35-19-6 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1

Lightning fell to the Sabres

The Lightning were outchanced (4.5 to 3.9 expected goals) and lost 2–6. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 3.0 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.

Who had the better chances

The Sabres created the better chances: 4.5 expected goals to 3.9, on 35 and 38 shots on goal.

TBL 3.9 xG · 38 shots BUF 4.5 xG · 35 shots
0
1
2
3
4
5
1st · the swing 1.4 · 2.3
2nd 1.4 · 1.9
3rd 1.1 · 0.3
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 41.
TBL 41%BUF 59%

Goals and penalties

8 goals · 16 penalties
← Lightning shoot this way Sabres shoot this way →
On net Missed Bigger = better chance 1Goal, numbered to the list
1st period
1
05:25 Rasmus Dahlin
Owen Power · wrist shot, a good chance (21%)
0–1
2
06:15 Josh Norris
Josh Doan, Zach Metsa · wrist shot, a great chance (44%)
0–2
3
08:18 Josh Norris GWG
Bowen Byram, Zach Benson · tip in shot, a great chance (30%)
0–3
PEN
10:44 Zach Benson· Cross-checking
Killed
2 min
Minor
4
15:06 Tage Thompson
Peyton Krebs, Rasmus Dahlin · wrist shot, a great chance (40%)
0–4
2nd period
5
01:54 Zach Metsa
Unassisted · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
0–5
PEN
05:47 Brayden Point· Slashing
Offsetting
2 min
Minor
PEN
05:47 Rasmus Dahlin· Cross-checking
Offsetting
2 min
Minor
PEN
10:26 Emil Lilleberg· Roughing
Killed
2 min
Minor
PEN
12:10 Jake Guentzel· Delaying game puck over glass
Killed
2 min
Minor
6
16:03 Dominic James
Oliver Bjorkstrand, Victor Hedman · wrist shot, a good chance (21%)
1–5
PEN
16:03 Victor Hedman· Roughing
Offsetting
2 min
Minor
PEN
16:03 Mattias Samuelsson· Roughing
Offsetting
2 min
Minor
3rd period
PEN
01:28 Alex Tuch· Roughing
Offsetting
2 min
Minor
PEN
01:28 Charle-Edouard D'Astous· Roughing
Offsetting
2 min
Minor
PEN
01:28 Michael Kesselring· Cross-checking
Offsetting
2 min
Minor
PEN
02:02 Jake Guentzel· Abuse of officials
Tuch scored on this power play
2 min
Minor
PEN
02:02 Jake Guentzel· Abusive language
10 min
Misconduct
7
03:43 Alex Tuch PP
Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Quinn · Power play (Guentzel, abuse of officials) · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
1–6
8
05:27 Victor Hedman
Darren Raddysh · slap shot, a good chance (15%)
2–6
PEN
06:23 Darren Raddysh· Cross-checking
Killed
2 min
Minor
PEN
12:48 Anthony Cirelli· Interference
Killed
2 min
Minor
PEN
17:12 Michael Kesselring· Cross-checking
Killed
2 min
Minor
PEN
20:00 Charle-Edouard D'Astous· Roughing
Killed
2 min
Minor
Goaltending
+1.3
vs expected
20/21 saves · 1 GA · 2.3 xGA Stopped 1.3 more goals than an average goalie would have.
−3.0
vs expected
9/14 saves · 5 GA · 2.0 xGA Allowed 3.0 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Team TBLBUF
Shots on goal
38
35
Expected goals
3.9
4.5
Hits
28
16
Blocks
14
5
Faceoffs
52%
48%
Power play
0/2
1/6
Penalty minutes
28
12
The Lightning went 0-for-2 on the power play and allowed 1 on 6 Sabres power plays.