TBL
4–1
DET
Final · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 40-20-4
4–1
FinalW
Detroit Red Wings
DET · 36-23-7
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
09110310429
DET
0501317125
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Lightning lead the season series 2–1
TBL 40-20-4 · DET 36-23-7 · Meeting 3 this season — the Lightning lead the season series 2–1
Lightning beat the Red Wings
The Lightning earned it: 2.5 expected goals to 1.9, and a 4–1 win to show for it. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 1.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Lightning created the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 1.9, on 29 and 25 shots on goal.
TBL 2.5 xG · 29 shots
DET 1.9 xG · 25 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.2 · 0.3
2nd
0.9 · 1.0
3rd · the swing
1.4 · 0.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Jake Guentzel · 2nd 00:49 · 1–0 · snap shot, a good chance (19%)
2
Gage Goncalves · 3rd 01:35 · 2–0 · deflected shot, a good chance (15%)
3
J.T. Compher · 3rd 07:05 · 2–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
4
Gage Goncalves · 3rd 16:22 · 3–1 · deflected shot, a good chance (16%)
5
Jake Guentzel · 3rd 16:55 · 4–1 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 60.
TBL 60%DET 40%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 2 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Red Wings shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Jake Guentzel · 2nd 00:49 · PP · 1–0
Snap shot, a good chance (19%)
2
Gage Goncalves · 3rd 01:35 · GWG · 2–0
Deflected shot, a good chance (15%)
3
J.T. Compher · 3rd 07:05 · 2–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
4
Gage Goncalves · 3rd 16:22 · 3–1
Deflected shot, a good chance (16%)
5
Jake Guentzel · 3rd 16:55 · EN · 4–1
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
16:14
Nikita Kucherov· Hooking
Nikita Kucherov· Hooking
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
19:47
Marco Kasper· Holding the stick
Marco Kasper· Holding the stick
Guentzel scored on this power play
Minor
2nd period
1
Nikita Kucherov, Corey Perry · Power play (Kasper, holding the stick) · snap shot, a good chance (19%)
1–0
3rd period
Goaltending
24/25 saves · 1 GA · 2.0 xGA
Stopped 1.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
25/28 saves · 3 GA · 2.7 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
The Lightning went 1-for-1 on the power play and killed all 1 Red Wings power play.