Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 45-21-6
4–2
FinalW
Ottawa Senators
OTT · 38-25-10
1ST2ND3RDT
TBL
0821128427
OTT
2110809228
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
TBL 45-21-6 · OTT 38-25-10 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Lightning beat the Senators
Down 0–2 in the 1st period, the Lightning erased the deficit with four unanswered goals — D'Astous's equalizer — and won 4–2. James Reimer allowed 2.0 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.0 expected goals to 2.1, on 27 and 28 shots on goal.
TBL 2.0 xG · 27 shots
OTT 2.1 xG · 28 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.3 · 0.8
2nd
1.0 · 0.7
3rd
0.7 · 0.7
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Dylan Cozens · 1st 00:18 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
2
Jordan Spence · 1st 04:25 · 0–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (39%)
3
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 03:37 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
4
Charle-Edouard D'Astous · 2nd 05:14 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
5
Emil Lilleberg · 3rd 08:51 · 3–2 · backhand shot, a good chance (12%)
6
Jake Guentzel · 3rd 17:48 · 4–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 47.
TBL 47%OTT 53%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 8 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Dylan Cozens · 1st 00:18 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
2
Jordan Spence · 1st 04:25 · 0–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (39%)
3
Brandon Hagel · 2nd 03:37 · 1–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
4
Charle-Edouard D'Astous · 2nd 05:14 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
5
Emil Lilleberg · 3rd 08:51 · GWG · 3–2
Backhand shot, a good chance (12%)
6
Jake Guentzel · 3rd 17:48 · 4–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
09:09
Drake Batherson· Holding
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
18:14
Warren Foegele· Holding
Killed
Minor
2nd period
3
Charle-Edouard D'Astous, Emil Lilleberg · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
1–2
PEN
2 min
Minor
07:40
Emil Lilleberg· Interference
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
08:09
Anthony Cirelli· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
08:09
Carter Yakemchuk· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
08:09
Dylan Cozens· Roughing
Offsetting
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
17:52
Erik Cernak· Interference
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
19:23
Brady Tkachuk· Cross-checking
Killed
Minor
3rd period
Goaltending
26/28 saves · 2 GA · 3.3 xGA
Stopped 1.3 more goals than an average goalie would have.
23/27 saves · 4 GA · 2.0 xGA
Allowed 2.0 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
The Lightning went 0-for-3 on the power play and killed all 2 Senators power plays.