TBL
4–3
DET
Final / OT · W
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 50-25-6
4–3
Final / OTW
Detroit Red Wings
DET · 41-30-10
1ST2ND3RDOTT
TBL
182110211422
DET
114062901330
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 4 this season — the Lightning lead the season series 3–1
TBL 50-25-6 · DET 41-30-10 · Meeting 4 this season — the Lightning lead the season series 3–1
Lightning beat the Red Wings
Chances were even (2.9 to 3.0 expected goals); the Lightning won it in overtime on Kucherov's goal. Cam Talbot allowed 1.1 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.9 expected goals to 3.0, on 22 and 30 shots on goal.
TBL 2.9 xG · 22 shots
DET 3.0 xG · 30 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.7 · 1.1
2nd · the swing
1.5 · 0.6
3rd
0.3 · 1.2
OT
0.3 · 0.2
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
David Perron · 1st 05:31 · 0–1 · snap shot, a great chance (39%)
2
Conor Geekie · 1st 17:05 · 1–1 · snap shot, a good chance (18%)
3
Erik Cernak · 2nd 15:53 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a great chance (57%)
4
Jake Guentzel · 2nd 18:03 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
5
Marco Kasper · 3rd 02:56 · 3–2 · backhand shot, a great chance (55%)
6
Alex DeBrincat · 3rd 15:16 · 3–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
7
Nikita Kucherov · OT 00:27 · 4–3 · wrist shot, a great chance (35%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Lightning win 48.
TBL 48%DET 52%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 4 penalties← Lightning shoot this way
Red Wings shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
David Perron · 1st 05:31 · 0–1
Snap shot, a great chance (39%)
2
Conor Geekie · 1st 17:05 · 1–1
Snap shot, a good chance (18%)
3
Erik Cernak · 2nd 15:53 · 2–1
Wrist shot, a great chance (57%)
4
Jake Guentzel · 2nd 18:03 · 3–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
5
Marco Kasper · 3rd 02:56 · 3–2
Backhand shot, a great chance (55%)
6
Alex DeBrincat · 3rd 15:16 · 3–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
7
Nikita Kucherov · OT 00:27 · GWG · 4–3
Wrist shot, a great chance (35%)
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
08:22
Charle-Edouard D'Astous· Slashing
Charle-Edouard D'Astous· Slashing
Killed
Minor
2nd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
04:36
J.J. Moser· Tripping
J.J. Moser· Tripping
Killed
Minor
PEN
2 min
Minor
09:19
Alex DeBrincat· Tripping
Alex DeBrincat· Tripping
Killed
Minor
3rd period
PEN
2 min
Minor
10:28
Charle-Edouard D'Astous· Illegal stick
Charle-Edouard D'Astous· Illegal stick
Killed
Minor
Overtime
Goaltending
27/30 saves · 3 GA · 2.7 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
18/22 saves · 4 GA · 2.9 xGA
Allowed 1.1 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
The Lightning went 0-for-1 on the power play and killed all 3 Red Wings power plays.