Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 1-0
5–0
FinalW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 0-1
1ST2ND3RDT
TOR
18311113532
TBL
0501108024
goals · shots on goal
Game 1 — the Maple Leafs lead the series 1–0
TOR 1-0 · TBL 0-1 · Game 1 — the Maple Leafs lead the series 1–0
Maple Leafs beat the Lightning
The Maple Leafs earned it: 4.3 expected goals to 2.2, and a 5–0 win to show for it. Jack Campbell stopped 2.2 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Maple Leafs created the better chances: 4.3 expected goals to 2.2, on 32 and 24 shots on goal.
TOR 4.3 xG · 32 shots
TBL 2.2 xG · 24 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
1.0 · 0.5
2nd
1.5 · 1.2
3rd · the swing
1.8 · 0.5
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Jake Muzzin · 1st 18:19 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
2
Auston Matthews · 2nd 06:18 · 2–0 · slap shot, a good chance (15%)
3
David Kampf · 2nd 09:27 · 3–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
4
Mitch Marner · 2nd 16:39 · 4–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
5
Auston Matthews · 3rd 08:16 · 5–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Maple Leafs win 80.
TOR 80%TBL 20%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Jake Muzzin · 1st 18:19 · GWG · 1–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
2
Auston Matthews · 2nd 06:18 · PP · 2–0
Slap shot, a good chance (15%)
3
David Kampf · 2nd 09:27 · SH · 3–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (20%)
4
Mitch Marner · 2nd 16:39 · 4–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (10%)
5
Auston Matthews · 3rd 08:16 · 5–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
24/24 saves · 0 GA · 2.2 xGA
Stopped 2.2 more goals than an average goalie would have.
27/32 saves · 5 GA · 4.3 xGA
Allowed 0.7 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.