TOR
4–1
TBL
Final · W
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 20-7-6
4–1
FinalW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 20-10-1
1ST2ND3RDT
TOR
115114211440
TBL
0404111119
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
TOR 20-7-6 · TBL 20-10-1 · Meeting 2 this season — the season series is tied 1–1
Maple Leafs beat the Lightning
The Maple Leafs earned it: 3.3 expected goals to 1.4, and a 4–1 win to show for it. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 1.3 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Maple Leafs created the better chances: 3.3 expected goals to 1.4, on 40 and 19 shots on goal.
TOR 3.3 xG · 40 shots
TBL 1.4 xG · 19 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.1 · 0.5
2nd · the swing
1.4 · 0.4
3rd
0.7 · 0.6
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Michael Bunting · 1st 16:45 · 1–0 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Auston Matthews · 2nd 01:01 · 2–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
3
Vladislav Namestnikov · 3rd 04:09 · 2–1 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (10%)
4
Pierre Engvall · 3rd 18:14 · 3–1 · wrist shot, into an empty net
5
William Nylander · 3rd 19:28 · 4–1 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Maple Leafs win 81.
TOR 81%TBL 19%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Maple Leafs shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Michael Bunting · 1st 16:45 · 1–0
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2
Auston Matthews · 2nd 01:01 · PP · GWG · 2–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
3
Vladislav Namestnikov · 3rd 04:09 · 2–1
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (10%)
4
Pierre Engvall · 3rd 18:14 · EN · 3–1
Wrist shot, into an empty net
5
William Nylander · 3rd 19:28 · EN · 4–1
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
18/19 saves · 1 GA · 1.4 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
36/38 saves · 2 GA · 3.3 xGA
Stopped 1.3 more goals than an average goalie would have.
