Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 24-9-7
4–1
FinalW
Detroit Red Wings
DET · 16-15-7
1ST2ND3RDT
TOR
02212215429
DET
1801005123
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 2 this season — the Maple Leafs lead the season series 2–0
TOR 24-9-7 · DET 16-15-7 · Meeting 2 this season — the Maple Leafs lead the season series 2–0
Maple Leafs beat the Red Wings
The Maple Leafs earned it: 3.0 expected goals to 2.0, and a 4–1 win to show for it. Ilya Samsonov stopped 1.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Maple Leafs created the better chances: 3.0 expected goals to 2.0, on 29 and 23 shots on goal.
TOR 3.0 xG · 29 shots
DET 2.0 xG · 23 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.8 · 1.0
2nd
1.0 · 0.8
3rd · the swing
1.3 · 0.3
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Jake Walman · 1st 11:57 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Mitch Marner · 2nd 00:24 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
3
John Tavares · 2nd 06:37 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Pontus Holmberg · 3rd 06:19 · 3–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
5
John Tavares · 3rd 18:21 · 4–1 · backhand shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Maple Leafs win 67.
TOR 67%DET 33%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Jake Walman · 1st 11:57 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Mitch Marner · 2nd 00:24 · PP · 1–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
3
John Tavares · 2nd 06:37 · GWG · 2–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
4
Pontus Holmberg · 3rd 06:19 · 3–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
5
John Tavares · 3rd 18:21 · EN · 4–1
Backhand shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
22/23 saves · 1 GA · 2.0 xGA
Stopped 1.0 more goals than an average goalie would have.
25/28 saves · 3 GA · 3.0 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.