TOR
1–4
TBL
Final · L
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 43-23-9
1–4
FinalL
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 42-26-7
1ST2ND3RDT
TOR
11101404129
TBL
14210111425
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Maple Leafs lead the season series 2–1
TOR 43-23-9 · TBL 42-26-7 · Meeting 3 this season — the Maple Leafs lead the season series 2–1
Maple Leafs fell to the Lightning
Chances were even (2.8 to 2.9 expected goals); the Maple Leafs lost 1–4. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 1.8 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.8 expected goals to 2.9, on 29 and 25 shots on goal.
TOR 2.8 xG · 29 shots
TBL 2.9 xG · 25 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
1.2 · 0.4
2nd
1.3 · 1.2
3rd · the swing
0.3 · 1.3
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Victor Hedman · 1st 10:03 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
2
Auston Matthews · 1st 19:00 · 1–1 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
3
Brayden Point · 2nd 02:54 · 1–2 · backhand shot, a good chance (18%)
4
Steven Stamkos · 2nd 08:47 · 1–3 · wrist shot off the rush, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
5
Nick Paul · 3rd 14:19 · 1–4 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Maple Leafs win 48.
TOR 48%TBL 52%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Maple Leafs shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Victor Hedman · 1st 10:03 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 0–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
2
Auston Matthews · 1st 19:00 · PP · 1–1
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
3
Brayden Point · 2nd 02:54 · GWG · 1–2
Backhand shot, a good chance (18%)
4
Steven Stamkos · 2nd 08:47 · 1–3
Wrist shot off the rush, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
5
Nick Paul · 3rd 14:19 · 1–4
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
4
Brandon Hagel, Haydn Fleury · wrist shot off the rush, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
1–3
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
21/25 saves · 4 GA · 2.9 xGA
Allowed 1.1 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
28/29 saves · 1 GA · 2.8 xGA
Stopped 1.8 more goals than an average goalie would have.
