TOR
3–2
PIT
Final / OT · W
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 45-23-9
3–2
Final / OTW
Pittsburgh Penguins
PIT · 36-30-12
1ST2ND3RDOTT
TOR
05191811323
PIT
11001011300233
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Maple Leafs lead the season series 2–1
TOR 45-23-9 · PIT 36-30-12 · Meeting 3 this season — the Maple Leafs lead the season series 2–1
Maple Leafs beat the Penguins
The Maple Leafs were outchanced (4.5 to 2.1 expected goals) but won it in overtime on McCabe's goal anyway. Ilya Samsonov stopped 2.5 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Penguins created the better chances: 4.5 expected goals to 2.1, on 33 and 23 shots on goal.
TOR 2.1 xG · 23 shots
PIT 4.5 xG · 33 shots
0
1
2
3
4
5
1st
0.6 · 1.4
2nd · the swing
0.9 · 1.8
3rd
0.4 · 1.2
OT
0.3 · 0.1
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Rickard Rakell · 1st 18:06 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Matthew Knies · 2nd 05:36 · 1–1 · tip in shot, a good chance (20%)
3
Auston Matthews · 3rd 01:22 · 2–1 · slap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
4
Drew O'Connor · 3rd 13:38 · 2–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (64%)
5
Jake McCabe · OT 01:30 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a great chance (28%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Maple Leafs win 19.
TOR 19%PIT 81%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Maple Leafs shoot this way
Penguins shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Rickard Rakell · 1st 18:06 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Matthew Knies · 2nd 05:36 · 1–1
Tip in shot, a good chance (20%)
3
Auston Matthews · 3rd 01:22 · PP · 2–1
Slap shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
4
Drew O'Connor · 3rd 13:38 · 2–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (64%)
5
Jake McCabe · OT 01:30 · GWG · 3–2
Wrist shot, a great chance (28%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
31/33 saves · 2 GA · 4.5 xGA
Stopped 2.5 more goals than an average goalie would have.
20/23 saves · 3 GA · 2.1 xGA
Allowed 0.9 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
