TOR
4–3
EDM
Final / OT · W
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 11-6-2
4–3
Final / OTW
Edmonton Oilers
EDM · 9-7-2
1ST2ND3RDOTT
TOR
110052611422
EDM
191911101330
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Maple Leafs lead the season series 1–0
TOR 11-6-2 · EDM 9-7-2 · First meeting this season — the Maple Leafs lead the season series 1–0
Maple Leafs beat the Oilers
Chances were even (2.7 to 2.5 expected goals); the Maple Leafs won it in overtime on Marner's goal. Stuart Skinner allowed 1.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.7 expected goals to 2.5, on 22 and 30 shots on goal.
TOR 2.7 xG · 22 shots
EDM 2.5 xG · 30 shots
0
1
2
3
1st · the swing
1.9 · 0.6
2nd
0.3 · 0.9
3rd
0.4 · 0.9
OT
0.2 · 0.1
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Adam Henrique · 1st 01:42 · 0–1 · snap shot, a great chance (30%)
2
Bobby McMann · 1st 03:53 · 1–1 · backhand shot on a rebound, a great chance (30%)
3
Connor McDavid · 2nd 01:51 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
4
Matthew Knies · 3rd 13:08 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
5
Bobby McMann · 3rd 14:07 · 3–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
6
Leon Draisaitl · 3rd 18:31 · 3–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
7
Mitch Marner · OT 00:40 · 4–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Maple Leafs win 54.
TOR 54%EDM 46%
Goals and penalties
7 goals · 0 penalties← Maple Leafs shoot this way
Oilers shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Adam Henrique · 1st 01:42 · 0–1
Snap shot, a great chance (30%)
2
Bobby McMann · 1st 03:53 · 1–1
Backhand shot on a rebound, a great chance (30%)
3
Connor McDavid · 2nd 01:51 · PP · 1–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
4
Matthew Knies · 3rd 13:08 · 2–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
5
Bobby McMann · 3rd 14:07 · 3–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
6
Leon Draisaitl · 3rd 18:31 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 3–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
7
Mitch Marner · OT 00:40 · GWG · 4–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
27/30 saves · 3 GA · 2.5 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
18/22 saves · 4 GA · 2.7 xGA
Allowed 1.3 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
