Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 16-7-2
3–2
FinalW
Nashville Predators
NSH · 7-13-6
1ST2ND3RDT
TOR
01107310328
NSH
1903112224
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Maple Leafs lead the season series 1–0
TOR 16-7-2 · NSH 7-13-6 · First meeting this season — the Maple Leafs lead the season series 1–0
Maple Leafs beat the Predators
Chances were even (2.2 to 2.4 expected goals); the Maple Leafs won 3–2.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.2 expected goals to 2.4, on 28 and 24 shots on goal.
TOR 2.2 xG · 28 shots
NSH 2.4 xG · 24 shots
0
1
2
1st
0.8 · 1.0
2nd
0.3 · 0.5
3rd
1.1 · 0.9
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Jonathan Marchessault · 1st 05:26 · 0–1 · bat shot, a great chance (31%)
2
Auston Matthews · 3rd 00:31 · 1–1 · snap shot, a great chance (28%)
3
Auston Matthews · 3rd 02:29 · 2–1 · backhand shot, a good chance (14%)
4
William Nylander · 3rd 05:06 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
5
Mark Jankowski · 3rd 16:38 · 3–2 · backhand shot, a good chance (14%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Maple Leafs win 46.
TOR 46%NSH 54%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Jonathan Marchessault · 1st 05:26 · 0–1
Bat shot, a great chance (31%)
2
Auston Matthews · 3rd 00:31 · 1–1
Snap shot, a great chance (28%)
3
Auston Matthews · 3rd 02:29 · 2–1
Backhand shot, a good chance (14%)
4
William Nylander · 3rd 05:06 · PP · GWG · 3–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (14%)
5
Mark Jankowski · 3rd 16:38 · 3–2
Backhand shot, a good chance (14%)
1st period
2nd period
No goals or penalties.
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
22/24 saves · 2 GA · 2.4 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
25/28 saves · 3 GA · 2.2 xGA
Allowed 0.8 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.