TOR
5–3
BUF
Final · W
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 19-10-2
5–3
FinalW
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 11-16-4
1ST2ND3RDT
TOR
18314119541
BUF
2111907327
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Maple Leafs lead the season series 1–0
TOR 19-10-2 · BUF 11-16-4 · First meeting this season — the Maple Leafs lead the season series 1–0
Maple Leafs beat the Sabres
Down 0–2 in the 1st period, the Maple Leafs erased the deficit with five unanswered goals — Tavares's equalizer — and won 5–3. The Maple Leafs owned the 3rd period, 2.0 to 0.4 in expected goals.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Maple Leafs created the better chances: 4.7 expected goals to 2.4, on 41 and 27 shots on goal.
TOR 4.7 xG · 41 shots
BUF 2.4 xG · 27 shots
0
1
2
3
4
5
1st
1.6 · 1.1
2nd
1.2 · 1.0
3rd · the swing
2.0 · 0.4
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Jack Quinn · 1st 01:03 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Alex Tuch · 1st 02:46 · 0–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
3
Max Domi · 1st 15:45 · 1–2 · wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
4
Jack Quinn · 2nd 09:11 · 1–3 · wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
5
Nick Robertson · 2nd 11:20 · 2–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
6
John Tavares · 2nd 12:41 · 3–3 · tip in shot, a good chance (22%)
7
John Tavares · 2nd 13:51 · 4–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
8
John Tavares · 3rd 17:48 · 5–3 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Maple Leafs win 80.
TOR 80%BUF 20%
Goals and penalties
8 goals · 0 penalties← Maple Leafs shoot this way
Sabres shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Jack Quinn · 1st 01:03 · PP · 0–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
Alex Tuch · 1st 02:46 · 0–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
3
Max Domi · 1st 15:45 · 1–2
Wrist shot, a good chance (16%)
4
Jack Quinn · 2nd 09:11 · 1–3
Wrist shot, a good chance (13%)
5
Nick Robertson · 2nd 11:20 · 2–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
6
John Tavares · 2nd 12:41 · PP · 3–3
Tip in shot, a good chance (22%)
7
John Tavares · 2nd 13:51 · GWG · 4–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
8
John Tavares · 3rd 17:48 · EN · 5–3
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
2nd period
7
Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
4–3
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
24/27 saves · 3 GA · 2.4 xGA
Allowed 0.6 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
36/40 saves · 4 GA · 4.7 xGA
Stopped 0.7 more goals than an average goalie would have.
