TOR
5–3
TBL
Final · W
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 30-16-2
5–3
FinalW
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL · 25-17-3
1ST2ND3RDT
TOR
1112829528
TBL
06112212330
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Maple Leafs lead the season series 3–0
TOR 30-16-2 · TBL 25-17-3 · Meeting 3 this season — the Maple Leafs lead the season series 3–0
Maple Leafs beat the Lightning
Chances were even (2.5 to 2.7 expected goals); the Maple Leafs won 5–3. Jonas Johansson allowed 1.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.5 expected goals to 2.7, on 28 and 30 shots on goal.
TOR 2.5 xG · 28 shots
TBL 2.7 xG · 30 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.8 · 0.5
2nd
0.9 · 0.9
3rd
0.9 · 1.3
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Auston Matthews · 1st 04:06 · 1–0 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
William Nylander · 2nd 13:45 · 2–0 · wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
3
Nick Paul · 2nd 16:07 · 2–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
4
Matthew Knies · 2nd 19:37 · 3–1 · snap shot, a great chance (31%)
5
Darren Raddysh · 3rd 08:07 · 3–2 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
6
Matthew Knies · 3rd 10:09 · 4–2 · wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (27%)
7
Nick Paul · 3rd 12:05 · 4–3 · tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
8
Mitch Marner · 3rd 18:55 · 5–3 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Maple Leafs win 47.
TOR 47%TBL 53%
Goals and penalties
8 goals · 0 penalties← Maple Leafs shoot this way
Lightning shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Auston Matthews · 1st 04:06 · 1–0
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
2
William Nylander · 2nd 13:45 · 2–0
Wrist shot, a good chance (11%)
3
Nick Paul · 2nd 16:07 · 2–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
4
Matthew Knies · 2nd 19:37 · 3–1
Snap shot, a great chance (31%)
5
Darren Raddysh · 3rd 08:07 · 3–2
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
6
Matthew Knies · 3rd 10:09 · PP · GWG · 4–2
Wrist shot on a rebound, a great chance (27%)
7
Nick Paul · 3rd 12:05 · PP · 4–3
Tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
8
Mitch Marner · 3rd 18:55 · EN · 5–3
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
1
Matthew Knies, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
1–0
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
27/30 saves · 3 GA · 2.7 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
23/27 saves · 4 GA · 2.5 xGA
Allowed 1.5 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
