TOR
4–7
BUF
Final · L
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR · 24-20-9
4–7
FinalL
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 30-17-5
1ST2ND3RDT
TOR
2617110423
BUF
31011635731
goals · shots on goal
Meeting 3 this season — the Maple Leafs trail the season series 1–2
TOR 24-20-9 · BUF 30-17-5 · Meeting 3 this season — the Maple Leafs trail the season series 1–2
Maple Leafs fell to the Sabres
Chances were even (2.9 to 2.8 expected goals); the Maple Leafs lost 4–7. Joseph Woll allowed 3.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
Chances were close: 2.9 expected goals to 2.8, on 23 and 31 shots on goal.
TOR 2.9 xG · 23 shots
BUF 2.8 xG · 31 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.7 · 0.9
2nd
0.7 · 1.1
3rd
1.5 · 0.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Matthew Knies · 1st 07:44 · 1–0 · wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (21%)
2
Rasmus Dahlin · 1st 09:29 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3
Auston Matthews · 1st 10:49 · 2–1 · backhand shot on a rebound, a good chance (23%)
4
Josh Doan · 1st 13:16 · 2–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
5
Tage Thompson · 1st 18:05 · 2–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
6
Bobby McMann · 2nd 11:17 · 3–3 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
7
Rasmus Dahlin · 2nd 18:17 · 3–4 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
8
Alex Tuch · 3rd 00:16 · 3–5 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
9
Jack Quinn · 3rd 11:33 · 3–6 · wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
10
Max Domi · 3rd 14:59 · 4–6 · wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
11
Rasmus Dahlin · 3rd 19:16 · 4–7 · wrist shot, into an empty net
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Maple Leafs win 51.
TOR 51%BUF 49%
Goals and penalties
11 goals · 2 penalties← Maple Leafs shoot this way
Sabres shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Matthew Knies · 1st 07:44 · 1–0
Wrist shot on a rebound, a good chance (21%)
2
Rasmus Dahlin · 1st 09:29 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
3
Auston Matthews · 1st 10:49 · 2–1
Backhand shot on a rebound, a good chance (23%)
4
Josh Doan · 1st 13:16 · PP · 2–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
5
Tage Thompson · 1st 18:05 · 2–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (3%) that found a way in
6
Bobby McMann · 2nd 11:17 · 3–3
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
7
Rasmus Dahlin · 2nd 18:17 · 3–4
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
8
Alex Tuch · 3rd 00:16 · GWG · 3–5
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
9
Jack Quinn · 3rd 11:33 · 3–6
Wrist shot, a good chance (12%)
10
Max Domi · 3rd 14:59 · 4–6
Wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
11
Rasmus Dahlin · 3rd 19:16 · EN · 4–7
Wrist shot, into an empty net
1st period
PEN
2 min
Minor
12:27
Steven Lorentz· Cross-checking
Steven Lorentz· Cross-checking
Doan scored on this power play
Minor
4
Rasmus Dahlin · Power play (Lorentz, cross-checking) · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (9%) that found a way in
2–2
2nd period
7
Mattias Samuelsson, Peyton Krebs · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (5%) that found a way in
3–4
3rd period
8
Tage Thompson, Mattias Samuelsson · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (4%) that found a way in
3–5
PEN
2 min
Minor
06:53
Brandon Carlo· Tripping
Brandon Carlo· Tripping
Killed
Minor
Goaltending
24/30 saves · 6 GA · 2.8 xGA
Allowed 3.2 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
16/18 saves · 2 GA · 2.3 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
The Maple Leafs allowed 1 on 2 Sabres power plays.