WSH
2–3
FLA
Final / OT · L
Washington Capitals
WSH · 2-2
2–3
Final / OTL
Florida Panthers
FLA · 2-2
1ST2ND3RDOTT
WSH
17041500216
FLA
1110121712332
goals · shots on goal
Game 4 — the series is tied 2–2
WSH 2-2 · FLA 2-2 · Game 4 — the series is tied 2–2
Capitals fell to the Panthers
The Capitals were outchanced (3.8 to 1.6 expected goals) and lost it in overtime on Verhaeghe's goal. The Panthers owned the 2nd period, 1.6 to 0.4 in expected goals.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Panthers created the better chances: 3.8 expected goals to 1.6, on 32 and 16 shots on goal.
WSH 1.6 xG · 16 shots
FLA 3.8 xG · 32 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
0.7 · 1.1
2nd · the swing
0.4 · 1.6
3rd
0.5 · 0.7
OT
0.0 · 0.4
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
T.J. Oshie · 1st 07:15 · 1–0 · deflected shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
2
Carter Verhaeghe · 1st 14:08 · 1–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
3
Evgeny Kuznetsov · 3rd 09:31 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
4
Sam Reinhart · 3rd 17:56 · 2–2 · snap shot, a good chance (19%)
5
Carter Verhaeghe · OT 04:57 · 2–3 · slap shot on a rebound, a great chance (38%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Capitals win 18.
WSH 18%FLA 82%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Capitals shoot this way
Panthers shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
T.J. Oshie · 1st 07:15 · PP · 1–0
Deflected shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
2
Carter Verhaeghe · 1st 14:08 · 1–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (17%)
3
Evgeny Kuznetsov · 3rd 09:31 · 2–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (8%) that found a way in
4
Sam Reinhart · 3rd 17:56 · EXTRA ATTACKER · 2–2
Snap shot, a good chance (19%)
5
Carter Verhaeghe · OT 04:57 · GWG · 2–3
Slap shot on a rebound, a great chance (38%)
1st period
1
John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · deflected shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
1–0
2nd period
No goals or penalties.
3rd period
Overtime
No penalties
Goaltending
29/32 saves · 3 GA · 3.8 xGA
Stopped 0.8 more goals than an average goalie would have.
14/16 saves · 2 GA · 1.6 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
