WPG
3–2
BUF
Final · W
Winnipeg Jets
WPG · 9-5-2
3–2
FinalW
Buffalo Sabres
BUF · 7-9-1
1ST2ND3RDT
WPG
073506318
BUF
06110112228
goals · shots on goal
First meeting this season — the Jets lead the season series 1–0
WPG 9-5-2 · BUF 7-9-1 · First meeting this season — the Jets lead the season series 1–0
Jets beat the Sabres
The Jets were outchanced (3.6 to 2.3 expected goals) but won 3–2 anyway. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 1.6 more goals than an average goalie would have.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Sabres created the better chances: 3.6 expected goals to 2.3, on 28 and 18 shots on goal.
WPG 2.3 xG · 18 shots
BUF 3.6 xG · 28 shots
0
1
2
3
4
1st
0.8 · 0.6
2nd
0.9 · 1.2
3rd · the swing
0.6 · 1.8
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Cole Perfetti · 2nd 02:12 · 1–0 · snap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
2
Mason Appleton · 2nd 04:33 · 2–0 · tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
3
Alex Tuch · 2nd 04:56 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (24%)
4
Nikolaj Ehlers · 2nd 08:12 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
5
JJ Peterka · 3rd 01:00 · 3–2 · tip in shot on a rebound, a good chance (19%)
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Jets win 30.
WPG 30%BUF 70%
Goals and penalties
5 goals · 0 penalties← Jets shoot this way
Sabres shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Cole Perfetti · 2nd 02:12 · 1–0
Snap shot, a low-percentage shot (6%) that found a way in
2
Mason Appleton · 2nd 04:33 · 2–0
Tip in shot, a good chance (13%)
3
Alex Tuch · 2nd 04:56 · 2–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (24%)
4
Nikolaj Ehlers · 2nd 08:12 · GWG · 3–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
5
JJ Peterka · 3rd 01:00 · 3–2
Tip in shot on a rebound, a good chance (19%)
1st period
No goals or penalties.
2nd period
4
Nino Niederreiter, Vladislav Namestnikov · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (1%) that found a way in
3–1
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
26/28 saves · 2 GA · 3.6 xGA
Stopped 1.6 more goals than an average goalie would have.
15/18 saves · 3 GA · 2.3 xGA
Allowed 0.7 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
