BOS
4–2
CAR
Final · W
Boston Bruins
BOS · 1-2
4–2
FinalW
Carolina Hurricanes
CAR · 2-1
1ST2ND3RDT
BOS
1821317428
CAR
1110818227
goals · shots on goal
Game 3 — the Bruins trail the series 1–2
BOS 1-2 · CAR 2-1 · Game 3 — the Bruins trail the series 1–2
Bruins beat the Hurricanes
The Bruins earned it: 2.9 expected goals to 2.0, and a 4–2 win to show for it. Pyotr Kochetkov allowed 1.1 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
Who had the better chances
Expected goals (xG) score every shot by how often shots like it go in: distance, angle, type, rebound, rush. Adding them up shows who created the better chances, whatever the scoreboard says.
The Bruins created the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 2.0, on 28 and 27 shots on goal.
BOS 2.9 xG · 28 shots
CAR 2.0 xG · 27 shots
0
1
2
3
1st
0.5 · 1.0
2nd · the swing
1.6 · 0.7
3rd
0.7 · 0.4
Tap a numbered goal to see how it happened.
1
Vincent Trocheck · 1st 09:17 · 0–1 · wrist shot, a great chance (25%)
2
Charlie Coyle · 1st 17:16 · 1–1 · tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
3
Brad Marchand · 2nd 05:41 · 2–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
4
David Pastrnak · 2nd 14:53 · 3–1 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
5
Taylor Hall · 3rd 04:08 · 4–1 · wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
6
Jaccob Slavin · 3rd 11:30 · 4–2 · wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
Deserve to winReplay this game 100 times with average goalies and the Bruins win 65.
BOS 65%CAR 35%
Goals and penalties
6 goals · 0 penalties← Bruins shoot this way
Hurricanes shoot this way →
On net
Missed
Bigger = better chance
1Goal, numbered to the list
1
Vincent Trocheck · 1st 09:17 · 0–1
Wrist shot, a great chance (25%)
2
Charlie Coyle · 1st 17:16 · SH · 1–1
Tip in shot, a low-percentage shot (7%) that found a way in
3
Brad Marchand · 2nd 05:41 · 2–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (22%)
4
David Pastrnak · 2nd 14:53 · PP · GWG · 3–1
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (10%) that found a way in
5
Taylor Hall · 3rd 04:08 · PP · 4–1
Wrist shot, a good chance (15%)
6
Jaccob Slavin · 3rd 11:30 · 4–2
Wrist shot, a low-percentage shot (2%) that found a way in
1st period
2nd period
3rd period
No penalties
Goaltending
25/27 saves · 2 GA · 2.0 xGA
Gave up about what the shots he faced would predict.
24/28 saves · 4 GA · 2.9 xGA
Allowed 1.1 more goals than expected from the shots he faced.
